Prediction market bets decided on linguistic technicalities expose how hard it is to turn language into a binary market, with payouts hinging on a single word
Did Cardi B “perform” at the Super Bowl? Did the US “invade” Venezuela? On prediction markets, payouts can turn on the meaning of a single word. https://www.bloomberg.com/...
Does “Mandani” count on mention markets? What about homophones, plurals, or compound words? Wrote about prediction market “rulescucks” and how Kalshi tries to wrangle the English language (gift link): https://www.bloomberg.com/...