Darton Commodities: the global cobalt shortage is set to persist through 2030, after Congo limited exports in 2025; the DRC accounts for 70%+ of global supply
A global cobalt shortage is expected to persist through the end of this decade as export restrictions from top producer Democratic Republic …
Context & Ripple Effects
The DRC’s outsized role in cobalt has long tied battery supply chains to a single producing country, alongside scrutiny of cobalt’s path from Congolese mines into lithium-ion batteries and sourcing practices.
Buyers had already sought more certainty: Apple was reported to be pursuing direct long-term cobalt supply agreements with miners amid earlier shortage concerns. Darton Commodities’ forecast puts renewed focus on how export limits can constrain that concentrated supply base.
First-order effects
- A shortage projected through 2030 extends the period in which cobalt buyers must operate with constrained availability following the DRC’s 2025 export limits.
- The DRC’s export policy gains immediate leverage over a market in which it supplies more than 70% of global cobalt, making supply planning harder for downstream battery-material purchasers.
Second-order effects
- Battery and technology supply-chain buyers have stronger incentives to secure longer-term contracts, diversify procurement where possible, and reassess dependence on Congolese material—the rationale behind earlier direct supply talks with miners.
- Persistent tightness can increase the value of processing, recycling, and alternative battery chemistries, though the article does not establish how quickly any of those options can offset constrained primary supply.
Third-order effects
- If export restrictions and shortages persist, cobalt becomes a clearer example of capacity lag: downstream industries can expand faster than concentrated upstream supply and trade routes can adjust.
- The longer-term shift is toward supply chains treating mineral sourcing, labor conditions, and country exposure as strategic operating risks rather than purely procurement decisions.
The trend: Critical-mineral supply chains are becoming more exposed to policy decisions in a small number of dominant producer countries, forcing downstream buyers to prioritize resilience alongside cost.