SK Group Chair Chey Tae-won says memory chip makers are expanding capacity but are unlikely to match demand until around 2030; basic wafer supply lags by 20%+
A global shortage of memory chips is likely to persist another four to five years because of endemic constraints in semiconductor production …
Context & Ripple Effects
January coverage had Samsung and SK Hynix executives projecting shortages through 2027 amid AI demand; this report extends that supply-demand arc toward 2030 and identifies wafer availability as a binding constraint. The result is a more specific explanation for why announced chip-fab expansions may not quickly translate into available memory.
The picture is consistent with later reporting that SK Hynix intended to double its memory capacity over five years: producers are responding, but the relevant constraint spans more than finished-chip output.
First-order effects
- Memory makers can expand capacity without promptly eliminating the shortage, because basic wafer supply is reported to be more than 20% behind demand.
- Memory buyers face a longer period of constrained availability as SK Group’s chair projects supply will not catch demand until around 2030.
Second-order effects
- Upstream wafer availability becomes a central constraint on memory output, shifting attention from announced fab capacity to the inputs needed to run it.
- Higher and less predictable memory procurement costs can flow into device economics; related coverage projected DRAM would account for a far larger share of low-end smartphone manufacturing costs through 2027 as DRAM supply falls short of demand.
Third-order effects
- If this pattern holds, the memory cycle becomes less responsive to individual chipmakers’ expansion plans: upstream materials capacity, not only fab investment, sets the pace of supply recovery.
- A prolonged imbalance would reinforce a semiconductor supply chain organized around securing scarce inputs and long-term capacity, rather than relying on the industry’s usual rapid supply response.
The trend: This is one data point in an AI-led memory investment cycle in which upstream supply constraints can outlast manufacturers’ capacity-expansion announcements.