Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the startup will void certain bets related to Iran's Ali Khamenei and claims it doesn't “list markets directly tied to death”
ergo, the no price by Feb. 28th was 99 cents. Pay me my money Tarek.@0xmerp:Yes I'm sure the guy that was supreme leader since the year 1989 was planning to peacefully retire How else did they expect this to happen?@vasuxbt:Kalshi just rugged ?Henry /@hankisinvesting:why does this keep happening? over and over, both on kalshi and polymarket > randomly changing rules & closing markets > completely screwing over their user base > extremely slow refund process y'all are playing with people's time a
The VergeTerrence O'Brien
Context & Ripple Effects
Kalshi’s decision lands as prediction markets are scaling into a more visible, higher-volume product category: one related account described the platform’s rapid rise in trading activity alongside Polymarket. That expansion makes settlement rules and exceptions central to whether users treat contracts as dependable financial products rather than discretionary platform offerings.
Holders of the affected Kalshi contracts face a changed path to settlement: the positions will be voided rather than resolved on the outcome users expected to trade.
Kalshi must apply and explain its boundary around death-related markets while addressing user complaints that rule changes and refunds can be slow.
Second-order effects
A visible voiding decision raises the value of clear, precommitted market rules for traders; ambiguous edge cases can reduce willingness to hold contracts through volatile news events.
Polymarket and other prediction-market operators have an opening to differentiate on contract design, exception handling, and the speed and transparency of reversals.
Third-order effects
As prediction markets broaden, their settlement process becomes a core trust layer: platforms may increasingly compete on governance and dispute procedures, not only market selection and liquidity.
If discretionary closures recur, the sector could face pressure to standardize prohibited-market definitions and disclose how voids are decided; whether that happens depends on platforms’ ability to restore user confidence.
The trend: Prediction markets are evolving from novel event-trading venues into platforms whose long-term credibility depends on transparent settlement governance.
I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that's different than having a market direc…
@mansourtarek_ You settled Jimmy Carter to “No” on attending Trump's inauguration after he died. You knew people were betting the 99 year old would die before the event. You settle on death, just not when it makes you money. This has nothing to do with death, this has everything …
Kalshi promoting a Khamenei “leaves office” market while everyone thinks he's dead, knowing that if he is dead they freeze the market and pocket the fees. Just incredibly cynical stuff. I'm a big fan of Kalshi and prediction markets generally, but this is really horrible [image]
Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications. MARKET RULES CLARIFICATION: If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the
Raises the question why Kalshi would even bother to allow a contract on the exit of an 86 year old dictator. There was no realistic “out” except death.
Reposting because my other message was unclear: We settled the market to last traded price before time of death (per our rules). All positions, no matter when they were opened, got paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position
Kalshi playing an incredible game of fuckery today. Thousands of users will be absolutely furious about their decision today. What a fucking mess. Someone put me on the class action. This is criminal. Bankrupt these cunts with legal fees.
How did they find the middle path to make everyone angry instead of one side? Did everyone waste their time and energy after 2AM trading and monitoring this market while they featured it on the homepage and made it ‘LIVE’? This answer doesn't feel satisfactory at all.
I don't quite understand making the rules up as you go. The rules were clear: the price before death. Khamenei died in the initial volley — ergo, the no price by Feb. 28th was 99 cents. Pay me my money Tarek.
why does this keep happening? over and over, both on kalshi and polymarket > randomly changing rules & closing markets > completely screwing over their user base > extremely slow refund process y'all are playing with people's time and money then *shocker* users are angry
A few months ago I bought contracts that would be Khamenei out of office by April 1st. This morning, Kalshi changed the rules to exclude death as a possible outcome. lol, lesson learned - have withdrawn everything from Kalshi and will never use them again.
BET? Kalshi took bets on when Khamenei would be out of office. They have cancelled the market because he didn't voluntarily leave office. Presumably they don't want to encourage assassination for profit. They have refunded everyone's fees. [image]
This is insane. The betting market was for whether or not he would remain in power after a point in time. Death was always a high possibility, even just factoring in his age. This is straight up fraud. I hope you pay through the nose & people abandon your site
prediction markets' depravity economy is the culmination of deregulation and kleptocracy, lobbying to legalize sports gambling, the collapse of advertising markets, hustlebro culture, crypto, memestocks, ai bubble ... venn diagram of horrible: — www.404media.co/with-iran-wa...
“Polymarket's recent integration with Substack means, I guess, that we're about to see a generation of people who ‘get their news from gambling apps,’ which is sure to lead to a healthy society.”