Discussion

• @mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour on x

  I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death.  But we believe that's different than having a market direc…

• @jellymanguy @jellymanguy on x

  @mansourtarek_ You settled Jimmy Carter to “No” on attending Trump's inauguration after he died. You knew people were betting the 99 year old would die before the event. You settle on death, just not when it makes you money. This has nothing to do with death, this has everything …

• @kmedved Kostya Medvedovsky on x

  Kalshi promoting a Khamenei “leaves office” market while everyone thinks he's dead, knowing that if he is dead they freeze the market and pocket the fees. Just incredibly cynical stuff. I'm a big fan of Kalshi and prediction markets generally, but this is really horrible [image]

• @andersonbcdefg Ben on x

  i see you've placed your bet on Red. unfortunately in this casino, we call that color Bleen. you get $0. we'll keep your money. thanks for playing!

• @kalshi @kalshi on x

  Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications. MARKET RULES CLARIFICATION: If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the

• @deepdishenjoyer @deepdishenjoyer on x

  imagine trusting kalshi lmfao

• @de_stalex Alex De St Germain on x

  Don't trade on @Kalshi anymore, they'll promote a market and then rob you - pointing to an update to their fine print as a reason for robbing you.

• @jebus @jebus on x

  Anyone else notice there's never a tweet that makes you want to use kalshi? It's always stuff that makes you not want to use them

• @karbonbased Karbon on x

  Welcome to using prediction markets Everyone who has ever used them has experienced fine print rule bullshit and garbage resolutions [image]

• @stephenkentx Stephen Kent on x

  Raises the question why Kalshi would even bother to allow a contract on the exit of an 86 year old dictator. There was no realistic “out” except death.

• @eckhartsladder @eckhartsladder on x

  Yes - your favorite degenerate online gambling website should monetarily incentivize the killing of humans. Very good analysis.

• @dtrain22k @dtrain22k on x

  Wonder if kalshi will be the fastest 0 to unicorn to 0 in history. That would be funny.

• @mert @mert on x

  welcome to 2026 where a main talking point around war is whether prediction markets should include targeted assassinations as “being out as leader”

• @goochmunster @goochmunster on x

  How exactly did these retards think Khamenei was going to lose his office besides death or war?

• @mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour on x

  Reposting because my other message was unclear: We settled the market to last traded price before time of death (per our rules). All positions, no matter when they were opened, got paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position

• @h00dedzombie @h00dedzombie on x

  Kalshi playing an incredible game of fuckery today. Thousands of users will be absolutely furious about their decision today. What a fucking mess. Someone put me on the class action. This is criminal. Bankrupt these cunts with legal fees.

• @lanceupperpi Lance Uppercut on x

  How did they find the middle path to make everyone angry instead of one side? Did everyone waste their time and energy after 2AM trading and monitoring this market while they featured it on the homepage and made it ‘LIVE’? This answer doesn't feel satisfactory at all.

• @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x

  Worth reading the replies and QTs

• @tradeandmoney Doug Campbell on x

  I don't quite understand making the rules up as you go. The rules were clear: the price before death. Khamenei died in the initial volley — ergo, the no price by Feb. 28th was 99 cents. Pay me my money Tarek.

• @0xmerp @0xmerp on x

  Yes I'm sure the guy that was supreme leader since the year 1989 was planning to peacefully retire How else did they expect this to happen?

• @vasuxbt @vasuxbt on x

  Kalshi just rugged ?

• @hankisinvesting Henry on x

  why does this keep happening? over and over, both on kalshi and polymarket > randomly changing rules & closing markets > completely screwing over their user base > extremely slow refund process y'all are playing with people's time and money then *shocker* users are angry

• @itsjoeco Joe Colangelo on x

  A few months ago I bought contracts that would be Khamenei out of office by April 1st. This morning, Kalshi changed the rules to exclude death as a possible outcome. lol, lesson learned - have withdrawn everything from Kalshi and will never use them again.

• @ned_donovan Ned Donovan on x

  Did they think he was going to lose an election as Supreme Leader? Or was the market contingent on the reappearance of the Mahdi?

• @predmtrader @predmtrader on x

  I for one think this is an incredible resolution decision [image]

• @amuse @amuse on x

  BET? Kalshi took bets on when Khamenei would be out of office. They have cancelled the market because he didn't voluntarily leave office. Presumably they don't want to encourage assassination for profit. They have refunded everyone's fees. [image]

• @iamsean90 Sean Fitzgerald on x

  This is insane. The betting market was for whether or not he would remain in power after a point in time. Death was always a high possibility, even just factoring in his age. This is straight up fraud. I hope you pay through the nose & people abandon your site

• @jbillinson Josh Billinson on x

  Imagining a guy who was gambling on the Khamenei out market because he was sure he'd lose a Supreme Leader snap election by the end of the month

• @joelkatz David ‘JoelKatz’ Schwartz on x

  So it's useless for hedging and only useful for gambling?

• @jasonkoebler Jason Koebler on bluesky

  prediction markets' depravity economy is the culmination of deregulation and kleptocracy, lobbying to legalize sports gambling, the collapse of advertising markets, hustlebro culture, crypto, memestocks, ai bubble ... venn diagram of horrible:  —  www.404media.co/with-iran-wa...

• r/Fauxmoi r on reddit

  With Iran War, Kalshi and Polymarket Bet That the Depravity Economy Has No Bottom

• r/TrueReddit r on reddit

  With Iran War, Kalshi and Polymarket Bet That the Depravity Economy Has No Bottom

• r/ABoringDystopia r on reddit

  Gambling on Death and War!  Welcome to the Boring and More Depraved Hunger Games

• @martinsfp @martinsfp on bluesky

  “Polymarket's recent integration with Substack means, I guess, that we're about to see a generation of people who ‘get their news from gambling apps,’ which is sure to lead to a healthy society.”