Discussion

• @mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour on x

  On Khamenei: We don't list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these

• @jellymanguy @jellymanguy on x

  @mansourtarek_ You settled Jimmy Carter to “No” on attending Trump's inauguration after he died. You knew people were betting the 99 year old would die before the event. You settle on death, just not when it makes you money. This has nothing to do with death, this has everything …

• @kmedved Kostya Medvedovsky on x

  Kalshi promoting a Khamenei “leaves office” market while everyone thinks he's dead, knowing that if he is dead they freeze the market and pocket the fees. Just incredibly cynical stuff. I'm a big fan of Kalshi and prediction markets generally, but this is really horrible [image]

• @goochmunster @goochmunster on x

  How exactly did these retards think Khamenei was going to lose his office besides death or war?

• @kalshi @kalshi on x

  Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications. MARKET RULES CLARIFICATION: If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the

• @deepdishenjoyer @deepdishenjoyer on x

  imagine trusting kalshi lmfao

• @andersonbcdefg Ben on x

  i see you've placed your bet on Red. unfortunately in this casino, we call that color Bleen. you get $0. we'll keep your money. thanks for playing!

• @dtrain22k @dtrain22k on x

  Wonder if kalshi will be the fastest 0 to unicorn to 0 in history. That would be funny.

• @de_stalex Alex De St Germain on x

  Don't trade on @Kalshi anymore, they'll promote a market and then rob you - pointing to an update to their fine print as a reason for robbing you.

• @mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour on x

  Reposting because my other message was unclear: We settled the market to last traded price before time of death (per our rules). All positions, no matter when they were opened, got paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position

• @h00dedzombie @h00dedzombie on x

  Kalshi playing an incredible game of fuckery today. Thousands of users will be absolutely furious about their decision today. What a fucking mess. Someone put me on the class action. This is criminal. Bankrupt these cunts with legal fees.

• @lanceupperpi Lance Uppercut on x

  How did they find the middle path to make everyone angry instead of one side? Did everyone waste their time and energy after 2AM trading and monitoring this market while they featured it on the homepage and made it ‘LIVE’? This answer doesn't feel satisfactory at all.

• @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x

  Worth reading the replies and QTs

• @tradeandmoney Doug Campbell on x

  I don't quite understand making the rules up as you go. The rules were clear: the price before death. Khamenei died in the initial volley — ergo, the no price by Feb. 28th was 99 cents. Pay me my money Tarek.

• @0xmerp @0xmerp on x

  Yes I'm sure the guy that was supreme leader since the year 1989 was planning to peacefully retire How else did they expect this to happen?

• @jebus @jebus on x

  Anyone else notice there's never a tweet that makes you want to use kalshi? It's always stuff that makes you not want to use them

• @vasuxbt @vasuxbt on x

  Kalshi just rugged ?

• @hankisinvesting Henry on x

  why does this keep happening? over and over, both on kalshi and polymarket > randomly changing rules & closing markets > completely screwing over their user base > extremely slow refund process y'all are playing with people's time and money then *shocker* users are angry

• @itsjoeco Joe Colangelo on x

  A few months ago I bought contracts that would be Khamenei out of office by April 1st. This morning, Kalshi changed the rules to exclude death as a possible outcome. lol, lesson learned - have withdrawn everything from Kalshi and will never use them again.

• @karbonbased Karbon on x

  Welcome to using prediction markets Everyone who has ever used them has experienced fine print rule bullshit and garbage resolutions [image]

• @stephenkentx Stephen Kent on x

  Raises the question why Kalshi would even bother to allow a contract on the exit of an 86 year old dictator. There was no realistic “out” except death.

• @ned_donovan Ned Donovan on x

  Did they think he was going to lose an election as Supreme Leader? Or was the market contingent on the reappearance of the Mahdi?

• @predmtrader @predmtrader on x

  I for one think this is an incredible resolution decision [image]

• @mert @mert on x

  welcome to 2026 where a main talking point around war is whether prediction markets should include targeted assassinations as “being out as leader”

• @amuse @amuse on x

  BET? Kalshi took bets on when Khamenei would be out of office. They have cancelled the market because he didn't voluntarily leave office. Presumably they don't want to encourage assassination for profit. They have refunded everyone's fees. [image]

• @iamsean90 Sean Fitzgerald on x

  This is insane. The betting market was for whether or not he would remain in power after a point in time. Death was always a high possibility, even just factoring in his age. This is straight up fraud. I hope you pay through the nose & people abandon your site

• @jbillinson Josh Billinson on x

  Imagining a guy who was gambling on the Khamenei out market because he was sure he'd lose a Supreme Leader snap election by the end of the month

• @eckhartsladder @eckhartsladder on x

  Yes - your favorite degenerate online gambling website should monetarily incentivize the killing of humans. Very good analysis.

• @joelkatz David ‘JoelKatz’ Schwartz on x

  So it's useless for hedging and only useful for gambling?

• @typesfast Ryan Petersen on x

  18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.

• @vxunderground @vxunderground on x

  Smh I hate it when my cloud provider is struck by an Iranian cruise missile

• @dudewhoinvests @dudewhoinvests on x

  Amazon $AMZN shareholders receiving this news... [video]

• @severeengineer @severeengineer on x

  absolutely legendary post-mortem in the works for this one that one gcp outage due to a flood in france will have nothing on this

• @initjean @initjean on x

  they lost a second availability zone and now Amazon S3 is failing [image]

• @jbillinson Josh Billinson on x

  “objects that struck the data center, creating sparks and fire” is like a tech “officer involved shooting”

• @monicalmarks Monica Marks on x

  The most serious Iranian hit overnight in the UAE. AI & data are key strategic priorities for the UAE. Remember that Dubai, especially, is not a petro-economy anymore. Decades upon decades of painstakingly laborious effort went into building economies beyond oil in the GCC.

• @lukolejnik Lukasz Olejnik on x

  “Objects that struck the data center” - the gentlest description of a missile strike since “special military operation”?The first time in history an “availability zone” became unavailable for ballistic reasos. Amazon's data center in the United Arab Emirates went down overnight

• @endicottinvests Nate Endicott on x

  Well compute just got slightly more expensive. $NBIS

• @naval @naval on x

  Drones are easy to make, hard to stop, and bring Mutually Assured Destruction to conventional warfare.

• @21wire Patrick Henningsen on x

  The Iranians know which servers are running US military AI platforms...

• @initjean @initjean on x

  there's an AWS outage in me-central-1 because it got bombed [image]

• @autismcapital @autismcapital on x

  Crypto bros: “Bitcoin can't *checks recent notes* be hit by Iranian cruise missiles.”

• @var_epsilon @var_epsilon on x

  oh to be a fly on the wall in this slack convo

• @uwu_underground @uwu_underground on x

  Add this to your threat risk assessment and smoke it

• @gregosuri Greg Osuri on x

  I've predicted this several times before, large hyperscale datacenters are sitting ducks in global conflicts. Decentralizing is the only real way for resilience.

• @nixcraft @nixcraft on x

  One of AWS data centers in the UAE caught fire after being hit by ‘objects’ (maybe be a drone or missile) amid the Middle East conflict. UAE based data center like AWS and others are heavily used by import/export companies, banking & finance, shipping, IT, Energy, & regional govt…

• @cinzia_bianco Dr. Cinzia Bianco on x

  Amazon temporarily shuts down its data center in UAE after being hit. The UAE strongly believes in AI and badly wants to host AI data centers, which are rare and extremely costly to build. This escalation is problematic in that way, too.

• @kabiran_ @kabiran_ on x

  Another reason not to have American data centres on your soil.

• @ns123abc Nik on x

  🚨 BREAKING: AMAZON AWS DATA CENTER BOMBED IN UAE >iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes on uae >strikes hit airports, ports, residential areas >amazon's main Middle East data center hit >ME-CENTRAL-1 just went fully offline WTF 💀 [image]

• @catgirlprostate Maddy Catgirlprostate on x

  It never even occured to me how valuable datacentres would be as military targets, I just never really thought of it but it's so obvious in retrospect

• @daniel_271828 Daniel Eth on x

  I think it was @hendrycks who first suggested large datacenters should be located away from population centers, because they could become military targets. Seems sensible.

• @nathanlands Nathan Lands on x

  I've been talking to everyone that will listen for months now that centralized data centers will be a top target in time of war. America needs its own sovereign inference infrastructure.

• @hotaisle @hotaisle on x

  Data centers are not built for war. All you have to do is take out even a portion of the cooling / electrical systems and the whole building shuts down. These mega projects are giant targets.

• @phl43 Philippe Lemoine on x

  “one of our Availability Zones (mec1-az2) was impacted by objects that struck the data center, creating sparks and fire” I guess that's one way to put it.

• @davidpco David Phillips on x

  this is the first ever data center bombing the beginning of an ugly trend

• @rauchg Guillermo Rauch on x

  Last year we announced the Vercel Dubai region (𝚍𝚡𝚋𝟷) on AWS 𝚖𝚎-𝚌𝚎𝚗𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚕-𝟷. A region is made up of multiple availability zones (AZs). The AWS availability zone 𝚖𝚎𝚌𝟷-𝚊𝚣𝟸 just got 💥 bombed. Our primary traffic ingress AZ has been unaffected. Fluid functions [image]

• @hammer_mt Mike Taylor on x

  “Through violence you may murder the data center, but you do not murder data. In fact, violence merely increases data.” - MLK Jr

• @dedene Peter Dedene on x

  @initjean “objects that struck the data center” is honestly the wildest corporate euphemism for a missile strike I've ever seen

• @durumcrustulum.com @durumcrustulum.com on bluesky

  and this is why we do tabletops, kids [embedded post]

• @vanvidum @vanvidum on bluesky

  I wonder just how fragile cloud computing might prove to be in a large scale conflict or disaster.  [embedded post]

• @carlquintanilla Carl Quintanilla on bluesky

  “.. When Reuters asked AWS whether the incident at the data center was connected to the strikes, the company did not confirm or deny.”  —  @reuters.com $AMZN  —  www.reuters.com/world/middle...  [image]

• r/news r on reddit

  Amazon's cloud unit reports fire after objects hit UAE data center

• r/aws r on reddit

  Amazon's cloud unit reports fire after objects hit UAE data center

• r/PrepperIntel r on reddit

  AWS datacenter in Abu Dhabi hit by missile.  Now Offline.

• r/aws r on reddit

  me-central-1 AZ mec1-az2 down due to power outage/fire

• r/programming r on reddit

  AWS Middle East Central (mec1-az2) down, apparently struck in war

• @jasonkoebler Jason Koebler on bluesky

  prediction markets' depravity economy is the culmination of deregulation and kleptocracy, lobbying to legalize sports gambling, the collapse of advertising markets, hustlebro culture, crypto, memestocks, ai bubble ... venn diagram of horrible:  —  www.404media.co/with-iran-wa...

• r/economy r on reddit

  Amazon Data Centers on Fire After Iranian Missile Strikes on Dubai

• @netblocks @netblocks on x

  ⚠️ Update: #Iran's internet blackout has now passed the 60-hour mark. The incident leaves the people cut off from the world without access to sources of information vital for safety and situational awareness, and out of touch with loved ones abroad as the conflict escalates. [ima…

• @ehsanism Ehsan on x

  People in Iran, under heavy fire and regime's full internet blackout, are suffocating. Be their voice: @netblocks “A government that, in the midst of war, when everyone is anxious for one another and the only way to receive evacuation alerts is through the internet, cuts off

• r/Fauxmoi r on reddit

  With Iran War, Kalshi and Polymarket Bet That the Depravity Economy Has No Bottom