Discussion

• @burggrabenh Alexander Stahel on x

  Citadel fills in some of the blind spots of the ⁦@Citrini7 note, which I enjoyed reading as much as everyone else. Let's keep the healthy debate going. 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @sagharborcap @sagharborcap on x

  Really good points here from Citadel Securities re: Citrini [image]

• @rushdoshi Rush Doshi on x

  Interesting: “Displacing white collar work would require orders of magnitude more compute intensity than the current level utilization. If automation expands rapidly, demand for compute definitionally rises, pushing up its marginal cost. If the marginal cost of compute rises

• @arronwei3n Aaron on x

  Nice one. This is a brilliant distinction. Just because AI can improve itself (recursive self-improvement) doesn't mean the economy can absorb it at the same lightning speed. And if you can produce more goods at lower cost, society as a whole gets wealthier.

• @aakashgupta Aakash Gupta on x

  A hypothetical scenario on Substack moved markets so violently that one of the largest market makers on Earth published a point-by-point rebuttal with Fed data and labor market trackers. That alone tells you everything about where investor psychology sits right now. Citrini's

• @vannacharmer Mosi on x

  Citadel Securities taking on Citrini speaks to the importance of New Media vs Trad Outlets that weren't perceived as ‘serious’ by institutions now are, mostly based on their track record and their ability to move markets Being a good poster is one of the most asymmetric opps [ima…

• @axelmerk Axel Merk on x

  “Despite the macroeconomic community struggling to forecast 2-month-forward payroll growth..., the forward path of labor destruction can apparently be inferred with significant certainty from a hypothetical scenario posted on Substack....” https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @gmoneyofficial G Money on x

  Surprisingly low quality piece from Citadel. Think they have far more weak assumptions baked into this analysis than Citrini in terms of war gaming scenarios. For one, they (and many others) are assuming that you will always need frontier models if you want to automate white [ima…

• @marthagimbel Martha Gimbel on x

  Citadel analysts as they're writing this piece: https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ... [image]

• @mylesudland Myles Udland on x

  This report will turn dozens of meetings into an email. Good for productivity.

• @bryntalkington @bryntalkington on x

  Great read by Citadel. The dystopian bears always sounds so smart, but as we know the optimists make the best long term returns

• @galois_capital Galois Kevin on x

  The Citadel piece was very good. https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x

  I'm honestly astonished that Citadel Securities published a rebuttal to the @Citrini7 piece. https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @roshunpatel Roshun Patel on x

  Citadel elegantly murders the Citrini post here https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @yrechtman Yoni Rechtman on x

  Pretty remarkable for ⁦@citsecurities⁩ to respond to ⁦@Citrini7⁩ and the response itself is remarkable as well. Discourse! https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @fabknowledge @fabknowledge on x

  lmao nothing is worse than this rebuttal from citadel. like i think i could write a better rebuttal with llm garbo in 3 minutes. respect the machine, but wow corpo dead speak https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @nfergus Niall Ferguson on x

  This seems like the correct rebuttal. https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ...

• @cap_zay @cap_zay on x

  Note to self, publish thematic doom piece during severe drawdowns

• @vchampain Vincent Champain on x

  AI productivity gains are just enough to partially compensate diminishing economic growth https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ... [image]

• @ericjang11 Eric Jang on x

  I find it simply incredible that the USA is constructing so many data centers. A nation of computronium. This is such a long-term good investment. from https://www.citadelsecurities.com/ ... [image]

• @illscience Anish Acharya on x

  banger from citadel today - yes to all of this and most all: “rising productivity lowers costs and expands the consumption frontier” aka - all the doomsday scenarios underestimate our infinity capacity for wanting more shit, and then other people producing it.. [image]

• @chrislhayes Chris Hayes on bluesky

  But now offices are actually largely paperless.  The vision of the future was correct but it took 50 years to play out.  —  www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and- ins...

• @sky.skymarchini.net Sky Marchini on bluesky

  OH MY GOD THERE'S A CITADEL ARTICLE ABOUT THAT CITRINI POST? www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and- ins...

• @katie0martin.ft.com Katie Martin on bluesky

  this is great.  big picture, i think i blame zerohedge?  —  Anyway, all i'd add is this rather cute bit of trolling: www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and- ins...  [embedded post]

• @ddayen David Dayen on bluesky

  The amazing thing is that Citadel felt compelled to put out a note rebutting the blog post, and it's core message is, um, AI adoption at work is flat.  —  www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and- ins...

• @mikefritzell Michael Fritzell on x

  Some of you newsletter / Substack authors are playing too fast and lose. There will be a backlash.

• @the_ai_investor @the_ai_investor on x

  Wow, about the Citrini's article: “the authorship attribution on a report attributed to market-moving was changed after publication, and the co-author is the managing partner of a $262 million SEC-registered hedge fund who confirmed short positions in the companies the report

• @david_tracey @david_tracey on x

  So the co-author of the Citrini piece was a hedge fund manager with short positions in tech. As I said the other day I had my suspicions.

• @stevehou Steve Hou on x

  This is effectively a long winded bullish thesis for why SaaS isn't dead. We live in a world full of frictions that AI cannot easily overcome and software are tools that help us overcome those frictions. AI + software >> software and “human + AI” >> “AI alone”.

• @anistotle_ @anistotle_ on x

  Vibe Laundering, Pt. 2: Citrini, the Co-Author and the Edit (remix not featuring the SEC)

• @stevehou Steve Hou on x

  I agree. I think software stocks had an expensive valuation problem, which made them vulnerable to shocks to growth assumptions. The software is dead thesis is overblown. They will stick around, they'll adapt. AI agents will call them and pay a fee. A new economics will emerge.

• @briansozzi Brian Sozzi on x

  Salesforce co-founder and CEO Marc Benioff (earnings call tonight): “I have never seen performance like this, but this obviously is not a rational market. We all know this. So we're using our remarkable cash flows to take advantage. You know, this is not our first SaaS

• @stocksavvyshay Shay Boloor on x

  $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative is wrong since AI agents won't replace software tools but they'll sit on top of them. The value accrues to the platforms and workflows agents plug into rather than some clean wipeout of SaaS. [video]

• @lukaszolejnik Lukasz Olejnik on bluesky

  Excuse me but this is ridiculous.  No challenge to SaaS from AI ... because someone is using a chat app?  I and we use Teams and other channels for communication, too.  So what?  We may switch it in minutes.  Channel is not a dependency.  Code is cheap. www.ft.com/content/b74b...…

• @mikeisaac Rat King on x

  the most useful thing about the “citrini report” — now referenced like some clandestine dossier — was the way it showed how little the market seems to actually understand about AI if a blog post equivalent to Herbert-level fanfic can swing indices that much, we're in trouble [ima…

• @pitdesi Sheel Mohnot on x

  Everyone dunked on the DoorDash part of the Citrini piece, but replace it with OTAs. Why would an AI agent use Expedia? It can check every airline/hotel directly. OTAs exist (& charge hotels ~15%) because comparison shopping is tedious for humans. Hotels will opt out, right?

• @jessefelder Jesse Felder on bluesky

  “The pure dollar number which is chasing [the dispersion trade] is bigger than before.  The fast money accounts like hedge funds are much more active . . . But you're also seeing the application of this [trading strategy] going way beyond just the hedge funds.” www.ft.com/content…

• @mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour on x

  The Citrini report caused a market sell off. But Citadel and others published rebuttals. Pricing the likelihood of this AI doomsday scenario could decrease uncertainty in the broader market and make asset prices more efficient. Kalshi has it at 11%. https://www.citriniodds.com/