Discussion

• @kantrowitz Alex Kantrowitz on x

  An instantly disqualifying line in the Citrini paper: “In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI. The only problem...the economy was not.” Sorry, this in implausible.

• @klaudnin3 Kira on x

  The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis That Wasn't A Macro Memo from the Actual June 2028, Not the Fanfic Version The unemployment rate printed 3.8% this morning, roughly where it's been all year. The market yawned. The S&P 500 is at 7,400, which is somehow both a record high and a

• @pratyushbuddiga Pratyush on x

  Whenever this cycle ends, the Citrini “report” will be an extremely funny relic of the mania like a Bored Ape or Peloton's stock chart. The DoorDash analysis is a third grader's understanding of marketplaces.

• @firstadopter Tae Kim on x

  Software investors the day after Citrini-pocalypse [image]

• @jyarow Jay Yarow on x

  Gratifying rebuttal to the Citrini article. The bit about real estate agents is particularly good. The internet should have killed that business. Not clear why AI agents will get it done if Zillow couldn't. https://stratechery.com/...

• @benjysarlin Benjy Sarlin on x

  So do the short sellers just hire Ted Chiang to ghostwrite bullet pointed newsletter takes now or...?

• @eric_seufert Eric Seufert on x

  For the past few months, I have been writing a long-form podcast articulating an AI Bull Thesis for the digital economy. I call it The Prosperous Society. In light of the Citrini report, I decided to chop it up and release it episodically. Episode 1 is live. [image]

• @ben_golub Ben Golub on x

  Citrini slop is a wonderful teaching moment

• @jbsteinberg Joseph Steinberg on x

  @rbrtrmstrng in FT on Citrini slop https://www.ft.com/... [image]

• @binarybits Timothy B. Lee on x

  The Citrini essay includes a paragraph about an industry I know something about. Redfin tried to do this exact business model (bare-bones buy-side agent who rebates 2/3 of the 3% fee) and consumers hated it. I see no reason to think an AI version will work better. [image]

• @modeledbehavior Adam Ozimek on x

  Citrini piece may be nonsense but it's the kind of impact professional take havers dream of

• @n0th0stl3tk0v3r @n0th0stl3tk0v3r on x

  walked by three desks with the citrini article open this morning

• @innoc_bystander @innoc_bystander on x

  Reading the Citrini report felt like being forced to listen to 2 mid-IQ bros, stoned out of their respective minds, debate something without respect for complex systems while the captain of the football team, who just suffered a severe concussion, tells them how smart they are.

• @rtylercrown Tyler Crown on x

  The Citrini article makes me more bullish on regulated industries, as places to invest, start companies, or work. Banking, insurance, healthcare, etc.

• @dkthomp Derek Thompson on x

  I really want people to see the story above the story here, which is that whether you're reading Citrini, or listening to Jamie Dimon at a cocktial party, the conversation about AI is a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives. That's not to say I think the

• @quantian1 @quantian1 on x

  >longs assmad Citrini put out a piece that didn't have any particular relevance to their holdings but caused them to lose a shitload of money anyways [image]

• @edels0n Ed Elson on x

  Here is what I wrote to our team re Citrini: I just read the Citrini article. It's actually really good (so much better than the Matt Shumer post). However, the market has no business reacting the way it did. It's a total hypothetical disguised as an absolute because of how it's

• @metacriticcap @metacriticcap on x

  If you're a bull, the worst thing you can say is “Citrini's scenario happens too fast” If we don't have enough compute and scaling laws happen over a longer time scale, this means that AXP will get its day of reckoning in 2032, not 2028! A decade of uncertainty! Ouch!

• @iridiumeagle TravisGood on x

  The meta-thinking proposed by the Citrini piece is correct: Our economy has been making huge leveraged bets on assumptions that will fail, and bad things will happen as a result. See also: Commercial real estate vs COVID.

• @fchollet François Chollet on x

  “Any software engineer can now produce much more value than before” “No one will want to hire software engineers” Both of these cannot be true at the same time.

• @ce_mcenerny C.E. McEnerny on x

  Yep. I have a realtor friend, and his huge advantage is that he knows literally everyone. Contractors, home inspectors, government officials, lenders, other agents. There are no surprises for him—anything that pops up, he's seen before. No AI agent is going to have the personal

• @kobeissiletter @kobeissiletter on x

  It's Too Obvious. What If AI Doesn't Actually End The World?

• @milkroad @milkroad on x

  The Kobeissi Letter just published a sharp rebuttal to Citrini's “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” thesis. Save this breakdown - you'll want to revisit it when the next wave of panic hits. Kobeissi's core argument = the bearish AI case is “too obvious” and probably wrong. [image]