Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan report the AI boom contributed “basically zero” to US economic growth in 2025, challenging claims of up to 92% growth
Massive investment in AI contributed “basically zero” to U.S. economic growth last year, Goldman Sachs has calculated.
Context & Ripple Effects
This is a sharp revision to the macro narrative around AI: Goldman Sachs previously projected that generative AI could raise global GDP materially over a decade, while a January analysis placed the investment boom at about 1% of US GDP. The new estimates separate heavy spending from measured economy-wide output.
The caution also fits earlier evidence that the initial boom did not translate into broad IT hiring: the sector added only 700 US jobs in 2023. It matters because Goldman says AI-related borrowing now represents roughly 30% of recent investment-grade bond issuance.
First-order effects
- Claims that AI was a major driver of 2025 US growth lose support from two prominent bank economics teams, raising the bar for attributing near-term GDP gains to AI spending.
- Goldman Sachs’ estimate puts more attention on the financing side of the buildout: AI investment is affecting credit issuance even where its direct measured growth contribution is minimal.
Second-order effects
- Investors and corporate finance teams will face greater pressure to distinguish infrastructure outlays from demonstrated productivity or revenue gains when assessing AI-related capital spending.
- The gap between capital deployment and macro output strengthens the case that benefits remain concentrated in builders and early adopters, rather than yet flowing broadly through the economy.
Third-order effects
- If this pattern persists, AI may resemble a long-dated industrial buildout: financial markets and infrastructure suppliers feel its effects before national productivity data does.
- The key structural question becomes whether adoption can spread beyond technology-intensive firms; without that diffusion, AI investment can remain large while aggregate growth effects stay muted.
The trend: AI is moving from an investment-led boom toward a harder test of whether deployment produces broad, measurable productivity gains.