Discussion

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  I have some big news to announce... [video]

• @govcox Governor Cox on x

  Mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don't remember the CFTC having authority over the “derivative market” of LeBron James rebounds.  These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling—pure and simple.  They are destroying the lives…

• @berniemoreno Bernie Moreno on x

  Clear lines of delineation and clarity on regulations is essential for American led innovation. Congress gave the CFTC the authority they needed. I applaud @MichaelSelig for his leadership in bringing about much needed certainty to our innovators.

• @brian_armstrong Brian Armstrong on x

  Couldn't be more clear. CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in the U.S.

• @senwarren Elizabeth Warren on x

  Trump's CFTC is trying to strip states' authority to regulate gambling within their borders and protect Americans from getting ripped off.  The CFTC should focus on ensuring our derivatives markets don't blow up the economy again, not helping corrupt political insiders cash in.

• @joepompliano Joe Pompliano on x

  Claiming that prediction markets are useful for society without mentioning that 90% of their volume comes from sports betting is so intellectually dishonest

• @govchristie Chris Christie on x

  Not telling the truth with a straight face is another trait of federal bureaucrats who just want to grow the size of the federal government & their own power while trying to crush states rights and take advantage of our citizens. Sports betting is not a derivative, it's gambling.

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  Here is the brief we filed in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to defend the @CFTC's exclusive authority to regulate American Prediction Markets.👇 https://www.cftc.gov/...

• @mattyglesias Matthew Yglesias on x

  Of course in some metaphysical sense there's no difference between gambling and predicting things, but we urgently need congress to come in and create a rule that draws something resembling the commonsense distinction between a gambling app and a derivatives market.

• @knibbs @knibbs on x

  ICYMI: My exclusive from Friday on pushback to prediction market regulation by the CFTC. Today there have been several escalations to this war already. We're likely looking at some big court battles

• @dannunezcohen Dan Nunez Cohen on x

  Important and very welcome news. The #CFTC bringing much needed clarity and rigorous market surveillance and fair market rules to all prediction markets will protect market participants and promote innovative markets.

• @danprimack Dan Primack on x

  It's not a left-right thing, which is one reason this fight is so intriguing.

• @katienotopoulos Katie Notopoulos on x

  Fitting that the upcoming civil war over states' rights will be about protecting the sanctity of young men losing money on DraftKings vs the new ways of young men losing money betting on the halftime show lineup on Kalshi

• @jbsdc Justin Slaughter on x

  This is both correct on a few points and incorrect on others. It is true that the CFTC has long cats a gimlet eye on prediction markets. While it has allowed them to exist when affiliated with an educational institution (the Iowa Electronic Market exemption), it has tried to

• @metzgov Bryan Metzger on x

  Notable here that Gov. Cox says prediction markets are “destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men.” Concerns about prediction markets tend to be stronger on the left.

• @tyler Tyler Winklevoss on x

  The @CFTC has federal jurisdiction over prediction markets and @ChairmanSelig is going to defend it. This is the way. 🇺🇸

• @predictaction @predictaction on x

  We agree with Chairman Selig - the CFTC has regulated these markets for decades, and they are best equipped to ensure market integrity. A patchwork of state regimes would create uneven protections for consumers and incentives to move more activity offshore, undermining customer

• @tysonbrody Tyson Brody on x

  One question I have since the CFTC is going all in on PM's being derivatives and futures. Does that mean the admin officially endorses section 1256 treatment for PM profits? Funny to not only undercut state taxes, but also to say this is taxed less than other types of gambling

• @dhtoomey Dan Toomey on x

  thought i had the freedom to trade onion futures but i forgot i live in communist china [image]

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  Chris Christie is leading a campaign to ban American Prediction Markets in states across the country. We're simply not going to allow that to happen. [video]

• @coffeebreak_yt Coffeezilla on x

  CFTC parrots prediction market talking points, claiming they allow Americans to hedge commercial risks like “increases in temperature and energy price spikes” Of course, forgot to mention the number #1 use case. GAMBLING! 🫠🎲

• @coffeebreak_yt Coffeezilla on x

  CFTC chair defending gambling companies (Polymarket/Kalshi) from state regulators. Grim stuff.

• @nancyscola Nancy Scola on x

  This is, too, a ‘personnel is policy’ story. There has long been a small number of CFTC employees who balked at the idea of prediction markets. Changing the federal workforce changes how these decisions get made.

• @hshaban Hamza Shaban on x

  The criticism of prediction markets is that Kalshi/Polymarket and their backers claim they serve a beneficial financial purpose and generate real insight. But in practice, they are platforms to sidestep sports gambling laws and serve as grey-area conduits for insider trading

• @joonlee Joon Lee on x

  Trump-appointed chairman of CTFC says they will go to court to protect the national legality of prediction markets Does not mention sports makes up 90% of bets placed on prediction markets Also not mentioned: Trump Jr is an investor in Polymarket and a paid advisor to Kalshi

• @demandprogress @demandprogress on x

  The 2008 financial crisis happened because we let bankers gamble on housing. Now the CFTC is trying to let gamblers gamble on every aspect of life. By fighting state prediction market safeguards, the CFTC is siding with gambling company CEOs instead of everyday Americans. [image]

• @hshaban Hamza Shaban on x

  Trump's CFTC is moving to prevent states from regulating prediction markets Chair Selig says prediction markets “provide useful functions to society” and “serve as an important check on our news media and our information streams” No mention of sports betting or insider trading

• @alexh_johnson Alex Johnson on x

  100% this. This is not about states rights or arguments over what is and isn't a commodity. This is a fight over revenue generated from a socially harmful activity. Some states want to protect their citizens from that activity (and forgo the revenue). Some states want to allow

• @knibbs @knibbs on x

  CFTC comes out swinging—it wants to maintain control over prediction market regulation

• @kylascan Kyla Scanlon on x

  [image]

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  As the 250th anniversary of our nation's founding approaches, America must maintain its status as the global leader in financial markets. To anyone seeking to challenge the Commission's authority over these contracts, I want to make it clear: we'll see you in court.

• @adamscochran Adam Cochran on x

  This is going to get overly politicized but multiple things are true: 1) Prediction Markets are event contracts. They have existed for 100 years and are clearly CFTC jurisdiction. The lawsuit is correct. 2) Offshore prediction markets with no regulation use the same sketchy

• @faryarshirzad Faryar Shirzad on x

  The @CFTC is stepping up. @ChairmanSelig's announcement on event contracts is a major win for regulatory clarity. Moving past state-level fragmentation is essential for the future of decentralized and prediction markets. Grateful for this clear-eyed approach to federal oversight.

• @mattzeitlin Matthew Zeitlin on x

  Notice the one type of prediction contract that goes unmentioned here...

• @dedsec @dedsec on x

  inflection point for prediction markets

• @shanegoldmacher Shane Goldmacher on x

  Trump's CFTC appears to move to stop states from regulating prediction markets —>

• @zackrosenblatt_ Zack Rosenblatt on x

  The big man is now in charge... It's refreshing to see the @CFTC re-assert its rightful federal jurisdiction over PMs under the CEA — particularly amid hostile state-level actions backed by legacy sportsbook lobbyists. Until Congress delivers durable legislative Clarity, the

• @moreperfectus @moreperfectus on x

  Trump's CFTC chair is attacking state lawsuits against prediction markets. He says these markets must be regulated at the federal level — an attempt to undermine state regulation of sites like Kalshi, Polymarket, and others.

• @jerlevine Jeremy Levine on x

  Thank you @ChairmanSelig 🙏

• @iampaulgrewal @iampaulgrewal on x

  Exclusive jurisdiction means exclusive jurisdiction— just as Congress mandated. “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space: let me be clear. We will see you in court.” Thank you @ChairmanSelig.

• @steveruddock Steve Ruddock on x

  There is a single aspect of prediction markets that is controversial: sports betting, which began 1 year ago. No state is trying to stop any of the other offerings that have been around for many years. The debate, and eventual resolution, would be so much easier if the

• @benhorney Ben Horney on x

  CFTC chair continues crusade in favor of prediction markets (after saying he'd defer to the courts before being approved in December). He's now telling the courts that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. He frames state lawsuits as overreach.

• @jesswelman Jessica Welman on x

  The way he hesitates before reading sentences and seems to be just constantly shaking his head really sells the message. Blink twice if you need rescued, Commissioner Selig.

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  Congress gave the @CFTC comprehensive authority over any contract based on a commodity, and the legal definition of a commodity is very broad.  Thanks to @POTUS , we've reversed course on crypto in a way that will ensure the US remains the crypto capital of the world.

• @chairmanselig Mike Selig on x

  American prediction markets aren't new.  They have been regulated by the @CFTC for more than two decades and serve legitimate economic purposes.  These markets have changed the way people consume news, monitor events, engage in politics, and can be more accurate than competing pr…

• @knibbs @knibbs on x

  EXCLUSIVE: New twist in the ongoing battle over prediction markets. Senate Democrats are pushing back on CFTC lead Michael Selig's approach to regulation: https://www.wired.com/...

• @declanharty Declan Harty on x

  “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products,” @MichaelSelig⁩ writes in the WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/...

• @rvangrack Ryan VanGrack on x

  Essential reading for every party - and every court - involved in prediction markets. The upcoming @CFTC brief isn't just another submission - it's the biggest development in these cases since they were first filed.

• @knibbs Kate Knibbs on bluesky

  He also published an op-ed in the WSJ making the same argument.  Truly coming out swinging. www.wsj.com/opinion/stat...

• @conorfkenny Conor Kenny on x

  1️⃣ The state of Nevada has officially filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, seeking a permanent injunction to halt its operations. The move comes after a federal appeals court rejected Kalshi's emergency bid to stop state enforcement. 🧵👇 #Kalshi #Nevada [image]