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Analysis: US productivity rose by ~2.7% in 2025, nearly doubling the 1.4% annual average over a decade, as AI-exposed sectors cooled their entry-level hiring

Financial Times Erik Brynjolfsson

Discussion

  • @darioperkins Dario Perkins on x
    oh PLEASE
  • @danobrien20 Dan O'Brien on x
    Millions of speculative articles on the effects of AI. Here is one making some data driven early conclusions, which are very positive in terms of the productivity boosting effects.
  • @alexolegimas Alex Imas on x
    Boom. From my “living” post on AI and productivity last month, which noted that productivity gains in micro studies haven't shown up in the macro data yet. I guess “sooner” came pretty quickly. Updating it now (though as @EconBerger notes below, this is one data point). [image]
  • @wholemars @wholemars on x
    Productivity is skyrocketing
  • @ai Anand Iyer on x
    2.7% productivity growth in 2025, nearly double the previous decade. And this is likely companies deploying 2023-era models at scale. If the previous generation of AI is already moving the needle this much, what does 2026 look like when Opus 4.6 and GPT-6 hit real workflows?
  • @firstadopter Tae Kim on x
    Narrative violation! Giddyap. “General-purpose technologies, from the steam engine to the computer, do not deliver immediate gains. Instead, they require a period of massive, often unmeasured investment in intangible capital — reorganising business processes, retraining the [imag…
  • @erikbryn Erik Brynjolfsson on x
    US productivity growth is likely to come in at about 2.7% for 2025. That is nearly double the average of the previous 10 years. There are many factors at work, but part of the story is that businesses are finally beginning to reap some of AI's benefits. I discuss the latest
  • @briancalbrecht Brian Albrecht on x
    I don't always share my past predictions but when I do, it's because I was right https://www.noahpinion.blog/ ... [image]
  • @micro2macr0 @micro2macr0 on x
    Does doubling productivity over the last 10 avg. seem 🐻 ish to you?
  • @fabioghironi Fabio Ghironi on x
    “there is cause for further optimism when we distinguish between potential and realised gains.” @erikbryn https://www.ft.com/... @FT
  • @producercities Jim Russell on x
    “For over a decade, economists have grappled with a modern iteration of the Solow Paradox: we have seen AI everywhere except in the productivity statistics ...Data released this week offers a striking corrective to the narrative” https://www.ft.com/... [image]
  • @matthewstoller Matt Stoller on x
    “Why am i paying for these kinds of slopvertorials to appear in this newspaper?” The comments in this hack piece are hilarious. FT readers are not having it.
  • @ft @ft on x
    The AI productivity take-off is finally visible https://www.ft.com/... | opinion
  • @happyhappyhenri Henri on x
    Good article by @erikbryn on the gradual appearance of AI impacted productivity growth in the US economy. Let's hope the UK follows suit. https://www.ft.com/... via @ft
  • @greenplusane Russ Greene on x
    The U.S.'s decades-long productivity slump may be over, thanks to AI. [image]
  • @robertscotthorton Scott Horton on bluesky
    Erik Brynjolfsson: For over a decade, economists have grappled with a modern iteration of the Solow Paradox: we have seen artificial intelligence everywhere except in the productivity statistics.  Sceptics argue that the reason for this is that modern innovation in machine learni…
  • @dannygroner Danny Groner on bluesky
    “We are transitioning from an era of AI experimentation to one of structural utility.  We must now focus on understanding its precise mechanics.  The productivity revival is not just an indicator of the power of AI.  It is a wake-up call to focus on the coming economic transforma…