Vitalik Buterin, who backed Polymarket, says he's “starting to worry” that prediction markets “seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit”
Quick Take — Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned that prediction markets are “over-converging” …
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Discussion
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NullTX
Will Izuchukwu
on x
Vitalik Buterin Sounds Alarm On Prediction Market Direction
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@vitalikbuterin
@vitalikbuterin
on x
Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a
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@0xandros
Andros
on x
One obvious improvement here is to create products that better inform users like @alphawhaletrade: - surface intelligent signals like large buys, price/volume changes, potential insider buys - following/copying high alpha traders - better/more reliable execution UX But even
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@victornotaro
Victor
on x
Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) “smart traders” who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.
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@allquantor
Ivan
on x
Imagine the notification on your phone: Alert: Your AI has detected you are looking at a pair of Nikes. We are currently short-squeezing the Footwear Index to afford them. Please wait 400 milliseconds.
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@kenilshahh
@kenilshahh
on x
Have been following prediction markets specifically @Polymarket lately and with recent 5 minute crypto markets, there has been a lot of misinformation on the polymarket website itself leading to washtrading, encouraging people to believe in false information and trade [video]
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@derekbrown
Derek Brown
on x
Fascinating take on prediction markets. Hedging the economy as a use case. Who's building this? 🤔
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@jasonsomensatto
Jason Somensatto
on x
Are we slowly coming realize that the economic purpose test was maybe a good thing?
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@iang_fc
@iang_fc
on x
Am I the only one who sees the hedgers (3 below) as being distortionary to the purpose of prediction & info traders (i below) ? That is, if you encourage & get lots of hedging, you lose the predictability of the prediction market.
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@vanishree_rao
Vanishree Rao
on x
While on one side what @VitalikButerin is saying holds water, there is an entirely different angle that requires different thinking. Using prediction market for hedging is indeed a new form of utility for traders. However, if hedging becomes a primary and significant use of