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Analysis: Claude Code currently authors 4% of all public GitHub commits and is on track to cross 20% of all daily commits by the end of 2026

SemiAnalysis Doug O'Laughlin

Discussion

  • @dylan522p Dylan Patel on x
    4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by Claude Code right now. At the current trajectory, we believe that Claude Code will be 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026. While you blinked, AI consumed all of software development. Read more 👇 https://newsletter.semiana…
  • @rauchg Guillermo Rauch on x
    Claude-using teams on @vercel: ▪️ generated 12.8% of deployments last week ▪️ ship 7.6x more often than non-Claude teams ▪️ growing deployments at 14% WoW
  • @_sholtodouglas Sholto Douglas on x
    2% to 4% in a month. Ludicrous. [image]
  • @bricked_trades @bricked_trades on x
    This is exactly what happened with Deepseek last year. Fear of cost/token going down ≠ less demand for advanced compute Fear of AI agents being cheaper to run vs humans ≠ less demand for infrastructure layer software Long usage based bill companies $DDOG $NET $PANW $CRWD $RBRK [i…
  • @kevinroose Kevin Roose on x
    this chart feels like the those stats at the beginning of covid. “who cares about 400 cases in seattle? and why are all the epidemiologists buying toilet paper?”
  • @jakehalloran1 Jake Halloran on x
    this graph is actually breaking my brain with how much of a bubble i was in until literally last month lol i knew it was a bubble obviously but also, lol, lmao
  • @stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
    When we built the C++ app framework for building Windows Apps (called MFC, codename AFX) in 1990, one of the first things we did was make sure to stamp client executables with __AFXAPP so we could see. A proud moment a short time later was seeing that stamp on Mosaic. :-)
  • @erikbryn Erik Brynjolfsson on x
    Slowly at first, and then suddenly.
  • @tszzl Roon on x
    @SemiAnalysis_ last half of this article is poor analysis: - makes assertion that 5.2 token inefficiency ruins long horizon planning? and yet it tops the METR chart for long horizon planning? half baked - counts NPM downloads as authoritative when Claude code numbers hugely infla…
  • @gilgnyc Gil on x
    I don't write any code manually. Everything is generated by Codex or Claude Code. At a certain point, you're taking a higher risk to allow humans to code than a machine.
  • @dkthomp Derek Thompson on x
    for me the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last 3 weeks and the odds that we're actually quite under-built for the necessary levels of inference/usage went significantly up in that period basically I think AI is going to become the home screen of a ludicrou…
  • @scaling01 @scaling01 on x
    SemiAnalysis: “It [Claude Code] is set to drive exceptional revenue growth for Anthropic in 2026, enabling the lab to dramatically outgrow OpenAI.” [image]
  • @semianalysis_ @semianalysis_ on x
    Claude Code is the Inflection Point, What It Is, How We Use It, Industry Repercussions, Microsoft's Dilemma, Why Anthropic Is Winning. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ...
  • @sarthakgh Sar Haribhakti on x
    “4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by Claude Code right now. At the current trajectory, we believe that Claude Code will be 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026.” “The cost of Claude Pro or ChatGPT is $20 dollars a month, while a Max subscription is $200
  • @binarybits Timothy B. Lee on x
    It seems obvious to a lot of people that something amazing is going to happen when this chart reaches 50% or 90% or whatever. But “authored by Claude Code” doesn't mean no human was involved. Claude code is an important new tool but it's not more than that.
  • @jayhawkjeff @jayhawkjeff on bluesky
    I think Claude Code is amazing and I think this will end poorly.  [embedded post]
  • r/InformatikKarriere r on reddit
    4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by Claude Code.  Projected 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026.