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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Investor fears that software companies are facing an AI-driven extinction event are exaggerated, but the persistent belief has damaged their stocks for months

Fears that software companies are facing an extinction event are exaggerated, but other dangers are real

Wall Street Journal Dan Gallagher

Discussion

  • @tbpn @tbpn on x
    Box CEO @levie's defense of software over vibe-coded, n-of-1 internal tools: “If you're Ford, and you're doing your supply chain on an ERP system, you want that to work the exact same way every single time.” “The billions of transactions going through that ERP system, you [video]
  • @stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
    Death of Software. Nah.
  • @thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
    US stocks outperforming the rest of the world has been one of the strongest investing themes for years. It peaked in December 2024, right after Trump's win. [image]
  • @taliagold Talia Goldberg on x
    SaaS index down 32% YoY despite most companies meeting or beating plans, all while the markets are up ~15%. Market fear of uncertainty and AI agents eating SaaS is wild. [image]
  • @tmt_jack_ @tmt_jack_ on x
    Owning SaaS right now feels like being on the Epstein files
  • @arampell Alex Rampell on x
    “The Software Clone Wars of 2004” History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes Before SaaS, and before freemium, there was “shareware” — try before you buy software. This was a concept dating back to the 1980s, where software would be freely distributed on floppy discs attached to PC
  • @forgebitz Klaas on x
    “saas is dead” - someone who's never stepped foot in a company with more than 7 people
  • @sarthakgh Sar Haribhakti on x
    Ben Thompson: “....the real risk I see for software companies is the fact that while they can write infinite software thanks to AI, so can every other software company. I suspect this will completely upend the relatively neat and infinitely siloed SaaS ecosystem....” [image]
  • @jasonrshuman Jason Shuman on x
    Agents set to exceed SaaS revenues real quick [image]
  • @qualityinvest5 @qualityinvest5 on x
    Generational buying opportunity in SaaS but I have no cash [video]
  • @mikeeisenberg Michael Eisenberg on x
    With the SAAS meltdown fully underway and the MBAs who “pulled the model forward” and thought SAAS was a bond, rethinking their high business school tuition, I thought I would share two lines from our annual letter to LPs that went out on January 2nd, 2026. [image]
  • @marcelolima Marcelo P. Lima on x
    “AI” is software and it's becoming just another “Lego brick” for SaaS companies, much like S3 or EC2 instances “Gemini is becoming the AI engine for the world's most successful software companies” [image]
  • @jaykreps Jay Kreps on x
    Dirty secret: most “AI startups” are just SaaS companies.
  • @litcapital @litcapital on x
    SaaS investors in the 2010s vs SaaS investors in 2026 [image]
  • @arpitrage Arpit Gupta on x
    Nice post at @stratechery interpreting the SaaS disruption: - demand for *software* still goes up a lot - but the moats and pricing power in SaaS are disappearing. - nice analogy to newspapers and AI code ~ user generated content https://stratechery.com/... [image]
  • @garrytan Garry Tan on x
    Software is not dead. SaaS without agents may suffer, but Agent SaaS is alive, well, and winning
  • @jukan05 Jukan on x
    I seriously don't get why Anthropic is out there begging investors for money. Just short a bunch of SaaS companies, then casually add their entire feature set to Claude.
  • @rrhoover Ryan Hoover on x
    “Strap in. This is the most exciting time for business and technology, ever.” This statement has particular weight coming from Sinofsky.
  • @levie Aaron Levie on x
    @stevesi “The number of processes and experiences in work and life that are not yet fundamentally improved by software is far greater than the number that have been improved by software.” 💯
  • @ji James Ide on x
    @stevesi To add, I suspect software companies are better equipped to be AI-powered and agent-ready than, say, retail companies were to adopt internet sales. Constant change and R&D is norma; in software, and so much of AI is programming-adjacent. It is software and hardware, afte…
  • @stevesi Steven Sinofsky on x
    @JI Maybe but why wasn't IBM equipped to capitalize on the PC they invented or Kodak on the digital camera they invented? These were companies that invented more stuff than just about any other company.
  • @howardlindzon Howard Lindzon on x
    it's the actual ‘birth’ of software when idiots like me can speak the language it is hopefully the death of kobe beef software engineering teams
  • @jonoringer Jon Oringer on x
    🎯
  • @neelchhabra Neel Chhabra on x
    The “death of software” thesis commits the same category error as “death of retail”... it assumes a fixed pie of economic activity that gets reallocated. The reality is that software expands to fill the available capacity for automation, and AI doesn't reduce that capacity, it
  • @traskjd John-Daniel Trask on x
    Really solid articulation on the death of software, or not, from somebody who has a unique depth of experience on the software industry changes over time:
  • @sagarbhupalam Sagar Bhupalam on x
    Excellent article. This is actually a bull case for software because TAM will explode and never before addressed usecases will be taken up by ai/human driving ai.
  • @illscience Anish Acharya on x
    A+ post - “what is absolutely part of this whole arc are people who are certain we are less than five years away and are in a rush to build with absolute belief in where things are heading, and people who support them with their labor or dollars.”
  • @martin_casado @martin_casado on x
    “The most important thing about the PC is that the first predictions were de minimis, followed by the prediction that it would eliminate mainframe computing and the data center. HAHA. Everyone was wrong all around.” Great, great piece by Steven.