Sources: Nvidia's plan to invest up to $100B in OpenAI, announced in September 2025, has stalled after some inside Nvidia expressed doubts about the deal
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has privately played down likelihood original deal will be finalized, although the two companies will continue to have a close collaboration
Wall Street Journal
Context & Ripple Effects
Nvidia’s proposed OpenAI investment had already drawn scrutiny over the agreement’s potentially circular structure, as outlined in earlier coverage of the deal’s financing questions. This report makes those concerns operational: internal doubts appear to have interrupted the planned transaction rather than the companies’ broader partnership.
The story also sits alongside reports of Jensen Huang’s concerns about OpenAI’s business discipline. Subsequent coverage indicates both companies continued to signal cooperation even as the investment’s size and form were being reconsidered.
First-order effects
Nvidia and OpenAI face a pause or reset in negotiating the proposed up-to-$100B investment, reducing the certainty of a landmark capital commitment.
The companies’ commercial collaboration remains intact, separating their operating relationship from the stalled equity-financing plan.
Second-order effects
OpenAI’s financing plans may need to rely on a smaller, differently structured Nvidia commitment or other capital sources; later reporting pointed to a potential $20B Nvidia investment within a larger round.
Nvidia gains room to reassess the financial exposure and governance implications of backing a major customer while continuing to supply and collaborate with it.
Third-order effects
If large AI infrastructure partnerships increasingly pair customer demand with vendor financing, deal terms will face greater scrutiny over whether projected demand and capital commitments reinforce one another.
The episode points to a more modular AI partnership model: compute suppliers can preserve strategic customer ties without committing to every proposed equity transaction.
The trend: AI infrastructure financing is shifting from headline-scale strategic pledges toward more closely scrutinized, potentially staged commitments tied to execution and governance risk.
This type of garbage is getting tiring. WSJ's headline implies Nvidia is bailing on OpenAI, but the article itself says the original “$100B / 10GW” framework was nonbinding and never a finalized contract (old news, Jensen didn't like the $amd deal either - duh). It also says [ima…
The delay in finalizing after the $100 billion letter of intent announcement spoke volumes. The AMD deal probably didn't help either, but I still expect some kind of large equity investment. [image]
they have the first mover advantage and it's considerable - even now, ChatGPT is easily the most popular consumer option — but Claude is eating their lunch on coding, Gemini has made real headway on general consumer stuff, and unlike the rest of the hyperscalars they don't have…
everyone who works with OpenAI ends up being gobsmacked that anything happens there with how badly the company is run; even after Microsoft parachuted in and rebuilt the board [embedded post]
Nvidia realizes giving OpenAI $100B so they can afford to buy Nvidia chips may not be a good investment after all. — Looks like some sobering up after over-indulging on circular deals.
This is either a new Code Red for OpenAI or a negotiating tactic by Nvidia to squeeze more from Altman. — I'll go with the latter for now. — www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The circular economy around AI is just a bunch of fake pronouncements by a couple dozen mega corporations designed to juice tech stocks. This is the only thing holding up the global economy right now. Total house of cards.