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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Wikimedia data: iOS 26 adoption was ~50% in January, below iOS 18's 72% in 2025, as Apple slows auto-updates; Statcounter had 15% after missing Safari changes

Daring Fireball John Gruber

Context & Ripple Effects

This report follows an earlier Wikimedia-based estimate of iOS 26 uptake that diverged sharply from Statcounter’s reading. The stated reason—Safari changes missed by Statcounter—makes the story as much about measurement methodology as about platform adoption.

Apple’s slower automatic-update pace is the key operational change in the coverage. Later Apple-reported figures also continued to show adoption below the comparable iOS 18 benchmarks, including Apple’s February iOS 26 adoption update.

First-order effects

  • Apple, developers, and web publishers face a larger active base on older iOS versions for longer as automatic updates move more slowly.
  • Statcounter’s 15% estimate is less usable as a direct adoption benchmark if its Safari measurement omitted relevant traffic, while Wikimedia-derived data gains importance as a cross-check.

Second-order effects

  • Developers may need to sustain testing and compatibility work across more iOS releases rather than treating the newest version as the dominant baseline early in its cycle.
  • Analytics buyers will need to reconcile first-party platform disclosures, Wikimedia traffic signals, and browser-based estimates instead of relying on a single adoption tracker.

Third-order effects

  • If slower auto-updates persist, Apple’s historically rapid OS-version convergence could weaken, extending the practical support window for older software among app makers and web services.
  • The discrepancy points to a broader need for transparent measurement assumptions as browser and platform changes can materially alter third-party market-share data.

The trend: Mobile-platform adoption is becoming more dependent on update-distribution choices and on how reliably third-party analytics can observe changing browser behavior.

Discussion

  • @kirb.me Adam Demasi on bluesky
    StatCounter has had multiple gaffes with their data recently (the spike in fake Windows 7 users, and now miscounting iOS 26 users), and I don't recommend trusting it, at least for now.  They had months to test if iOS 26 was detected properly, and didn't.  The Wikimedia data seems…
  • @_Davidsmith@mastodon.social David Smith on mastodon
    I noticed iOS 26 adoption had entered a ‘third wave’ of rapid adoption.  So I made a graph of the relative adoption versus iOS 18 at this point in the release cycle.  —  While lower than iOS 18 at this point for my apps (65% vs. 78%), the shape of this graph says to me that Apple…
  • @Gargron@mastodon.social Eugen Rochko on mastodon
    @daringfireball Anecdotally, my parents are holding off on upgrading their devices to 26 because they don't like how it looks and how much laggier it is.
  • @lapcatsoftware@mastodon.social Jeff Johnson on mastodon
    RE: https://mastodon.social/...  “What's going on, quite obviously, is that Apple itself is slow-rolling the automatic updates to iOS 26.”  —  Apple already intentionally discontinued iOS 18 security updates for devices that support iOS 26, so if Gruber's claim is true, then Appl…