Under new US licensing requirements, the Commerce Department says it will review exports of Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X to China on a case-by-case basis
a limit on how much Nvidia and AMD can sell to China and required certifications that US supply won't be affected. https://www.bloomberg.com/...@kakashiii111:The Chinese government limiting purchases of H200s to special cases should not surprise anyone who follows the massive Chinese buildout in SEA. The Chinese government is signaling a few things: First, we do not need any favors from the US government; we already have our way to Nvidia chips. Second, the Chinese government signals that it f
Bloomberg
Context & Ripple Effects
This converts an earlier US opening for H200 sales into an administered channel: Nvidia and AMD must seek approval and attest that domestic supply is protected. China was already moving to restrict access to H200s as part of a self-sufficiency push, creating a second policy gate for prospective buyers.
The next stage of the policy arc was China’s reported plan to require local companies to justify H200 purchases and limit quantities, adding buyer-side eligibility rules to US export licensing. Later reporting that Nvidia received permission for only a small shipment underscores that a license is not equivalent to broadly available supply. a small licensed shipment
First-order effects
Nvidia and AMD face case-by-case licensing, sales limits, and certification obligations for H200 and MI325X exports to China, making shipments contingent on US review.
Chinese customers lose certainty that ordered accelerators can be supplied; eligibility now depends on both US export approval and available supply outside the US.
Second-order effects
China’s reported purchase-justification rules mean exporters and customers must navigate overlapping US and Chinese constraints, concentrating demand among buyers able to clear both processes. China’s proposed buyer-justification regime
The requirement to protect US supply gives domestic customers a formal claim on inventory, potentially changing how Nvidia and AMD allocate these products between US and Chinese orders.
Third-order effects
The episode points to compute trade being governed less by a single prohibition than by managed allocation, where licensing, volume limits, and end-market supply assurances jointly determine access.
If both governments sustain these controls, chip vendors will operate in a bifurcated market in which commercial demand alone cannot determine where leading AI infrastructure ships.
The trend: AI accelerators are becoming strategic assets subject to bilateral allocation rules rather than ordinary cross-border sales.
The cap at 50% of US customer volume means: a. H200 sales worldwide were in my books at around 2M (total Hopper at 4M). This caps it at 1M. b. can't do a China specific chip (because it has zero US sales)
Following Trump's decision last month, BIS has published a rule to clear a path for H200 sales to China. It has some strings attached— a limit on how much Nvidia and AMD can sell to China and required certifications that US supply won't be affected. https://www.bloomberg.com/...
The Chinese government limiting purchases of H200s to special cases should not surprise anyone who follows the massive Chinese buildout in SEA. The Chinese government is signaling a few things: First, we do not need any favors from the US government; we already have our way to N…
The rule codifying the H200 deal is out. Notably: -H200 is allowed-chips more powerful are not -Exports only if there's sufficient US supply first -Aggregate exports capped at <50% of US customer volume -KYC for remote access [image]
News about $NVDA and $AMD so breaking that the U.S. government is adding 1-2 words to existing headlines to make it look like work is being done. NVIDIA guidance does not include China revenue. NVIDIA can now sell to China. NVIDIA will have higher revenue growth not accounted
Seems like some sensible guardrails for many concerns with these exports. I've long been advocating for quantity caps to preserve compute gap. Now let's see if Chinese firms are allowed to buy the whole quota or less
Nvidia won formal approval to sell H200 chips to China, with the US announcing regulations allowing the sales, media report. The chips must be tested by a 3rd party before shipping, and Nvidia must certify there are enough H200s in the US to satisfy a rule that China cannot
explain to me again how the US isn't in cahoots with China and all the other members of the dictators club and the Corporate monarchy surveillance state that will swallow Taiwan? [embedded post]