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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Source: delivery startup Gopuff, which recently launched in London and NYC, raised $1.5B in convertible notes at a valuation of up to $40B

Axios Dan Primack

Context & Ripple Effects

By December 2021, Gopuff had been on a steep valuation climb all year — from a $8.9B raise in March on its flat-$1.95, sub-30-minute model across 650+ US cities, to a reported $15B by mid-year, alongside buying routing-software maker rideOS for a reported $115M (the rideOS acquisition). This $1.5B convertible note raise at up to $40B marks the top of that arc, funding fresh launches in London and NYC at the peak of pandemic-era delivery demand.

What came after makes the raise the reference point for the sector's reset: Gopuff was back seeking up to $300M in borrowing after burning ~$400M in early 2022, and by late 2025 had raised just $250M at an $8.5B valuation — roughly a fifth of this round's ceiling.

First-order effects

  • Gopuff gets a $1.5B war chest priced off a paper valuation of up to $40B — more than double its mid-2021 mark — to fund its London and NYC launches against entrenched local incumbents.

Second-order effects

  • Rival rapid-delivery players face a competitor with peak-cycle capital to subsidize entry into two new markets, pressuring them into matching spend or ceding ground; the structure also defers dilution questions until conversion.

Third-order effects

  • When pandemic demand faded, the same company burned ~$400M a year, saw Getir exit the US entirely, and repriced to $8.5B — leaving Gopuff as one of the last fast-delivery startups standing, with the sector consolidating around whoever can reach cash-flow breakeven rather than whoever raised biggest.

The trend: Instant-delivery valuations crested in late 2021 on pandemic demand and cheap convertibles, then reset hard as burn rates outlasted the behavior shift — with survivors determined by unit economics, not fundraising ceilings.

Discussion

  • @post_market Post M. on x
    @rsandler21969 Casey's does ~$5b of inside sales and is valued at $8.5b. Owns all their real estate, heavy high-margin food mix. GoPuff best case does $1.5b run-rate today, and has to deliver everything. In what world is it possible to justify $40b 😂
  • @pkafka Peter Kafka on x
    I told friends recently that the https://kozmo.com/ model has been revived - only this time investors are pouring billions, not millions into it - and they didn't believe me, bc who would be that stupid? https://twitter.com/...