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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Experts say misinformation from “verified” pseudo-OSINT accounts on X, driven by profit and engagement, is destroying the Israel-Hamas war information ecosystem

404 Media Joseph Cox

Context & Ripple Effects

Related coverage depicts a conflict-information environment in which fast-moving social posts shape public understanding before claims can be reliably checked, creating a social-media fog of war. Misclassification by AI image detectors adds a separate failure mode: authentic images can be treated as suspect, compounding uncertainty rather than resolving it.

The concern is not limited to individual false posts. Subsequent coverage found that misleading posts from verified users reached large audiences and that Community Notes was struggling to scale despite X adding a source-link requirement for proposed notes.

First-order effects

  • Verification can lend pseudo-OSINT accounts an appearance of authority, making it harder for users following the war to distinguish sourced reporting from engagement-driven claims.
  • Profit and engagement incentives reward high-volume, attention-grabbing conflict content, while corrections and provenance checks compete at a speed disadvantage.

Second-order effects

  • X faces greater pressure to make verification and Community Notes more effective credibility signals; the linked-source requirement for proposed notes addresses sourcing but does not by itself resolve distribution or scale.
  • Advertisers face brand-safety exposure when their placements appear beneath misleading war claims, as later analysis found ads attached to posts from large accounts making false or misleading assertions.

Third-order effects

  • If paid verification continues to function as a broad trust cue without dependable accountability, platform identity signals may lose value precisely during high-stakes news events.
  • The pattern points toward a durable contest between engagement-based distribution and systems that establish provenance; detection tools can also undermine trust when they incorrectly flag real material.

The trend: This is one instance of conflict reporting becoming a stress test for whether social platforms can separate monetized reach from credible information.

Discussion

  • @cengizyar Cengiz on threads
    “this entire space is 90% grifters” https://www.404media.co/...
  • @dangillmor@mastodon.social Dan Gillmor on mastodon
    Open source intelligence (OSINT) has been one our most valuable sources of information, but the deadbird site is encouraging lying propagandists and disinformation specialists to poison the entire ecosystem.  Whether Musk's goal is money or amplifying deceit, this is deliberate —…
  • @jasonkoebler@mastodon.social Jason Koebler on mastodon
    poorly vetted/opportunistic “OSINT” is spreading super widely by verified accounts on Twitter, incentivized by Musk's changes: “Frankly right now, the crowd drives what is ‘true’”  —  One expert told us: “today's problem is unprecedented”  —  https://www.404media.co/...
  • @jburnmurdoch John Burn-Murdoch on x
    Some quick thoughts on why large parts of the mainstream media keep slipping up on Gaza/Israel (and why it was the same at times with Covid): The main reason is a failure to keep pace with modern news gathering techniques, but there's more.
  • @osinttechnical @osinttechnical on x
    Honestly a bunch of people are going to have to come to terms with the fact that they fell victim to incredibly weak propaganda that was unintentionally refuted by the source in a convincing manner less than 12 hours later Oh who am I kidding there's absolutely no way they will
  • @osinttechnical @osinttechnical on x
    Update on the chapel at the Ahli Hospital in Gaza, the building lost several of its stained glass windows in the explosion, but otherwise appears to be intact. [video]
  • @josephfcox Joseph Cox on x
    New: verified Twitter ‘OSINT’ accounts are destroying the Israel-Palestine information ecosystem. What used to be a network of reliable experts has been taken over by profit and click driven verified accounts. Everyone loses out. “Unprecedented” levels https://www.404media.co/...…
  • @colbybadhwar Colby Badhwar on x
    The worst offender is OSINTdefender, whom many gullible politicians, staffers and journalists blindly follow and RT.