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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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In 2023, crypto money laundering fell 29.5% YoY to $22.2B, 109 addresses got $10M+ in illicit crypto each, and five off-ramp services got 71.7% of illicit funds

Chainalysis

Context & Ripple Effects

The decline follows a 2022 surge in laundering volume, when illicit addresses sent nearly $23.8B, and sits alongside Chainalysis’s separate finding that illicit-address receipts also fell in 2023.

Concentration is the durable part of the story: earlier research found that five services controlled 55% of laundering flows in 2020, while the 2023 data shows an even larger share routed through five off-ramps.

First-order effects

  • Five off-ramp services become the immediate choke points for identifying and disrupting most illicit cash-out activity, since they handled 71.7% of the reported funds.
  • The 109 addresses receiving more than $10M each are a far narrower set for investigators and compliance teams to prioritize than the full universe of illicit addresses.

Second-order effects

  • Exchanges, wallet providers, and analytics vendors connected to these off-ramps face stronger incentives to improve transaction monitoring and counterparty screening around the concentrated routes.
  • Criminal operators may have to diversify cash-out paths if scrutiny constrains the dominant services, potentially shifting activity toward less visible channels rather than eliminating it.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern suggests crypto anti-money-laundering enforcement can increasingly be organized around a small number of conversion gateways, rather than attempting to police every on-chain transfer equally.
  • If concentration persists, the sector’s legitimacy challenge will hinge less on blockchain traceability alone and more on whether off-ramps consistently apply controls as illicit flows move between crypto and traditional money.

The trend: Crypto compliance is moving toward choke-point enforcement, with a small set of off-ramps carrying outsized responsibility for stopping illicit funds from becoming spendable money.

Discussion

  • @chainalysis @chainalysis on x
    How concentrated is money laundering activity? Depends on how you look at it. We saw a slight increase in concentration at the service level, with a bigger share of funds going to a small group of exchanges in 2023. But concentration fell YoY at the deposit address level. [image]
  • @chainalysis @chainalysis on x
    Most of those funds went to centralized exchanges, though we also saw significant increases in illicit funds sent to cross-chain bridges, particularly with wallets associated with crypto hacks. [image]
  • @chainalysis @chainalysis on x
    We estimate that crypto criminals laundered $22.2 billion in crypto in 2023, based on outflows from illicit addresses to services. [image]