Analysis: the AI investment boom represents ~1% of US GDP, roughly half the GDP share during the '90s dot-com boom and comparable to the mid-2010s US shale boom
US economist Jason Furman caused a bit of a kerfuffle in 2025 when he estimated that investment in information processing equipment & software …
US AI boom is smaller than previous investment booms — • At ~1% of US GDP, boom is similar in size to 2010s US shale boom and half as large as dot-com boom of 1990s — • Investment booms typically don't translate into medium-term increase in GDP growth — Full @bis.org study …
Interest rates for loans to AI firms are similar to those for non-AI firms — • This contrasts with high valuations of AI firms, which imply big future returns — • Either lenders underestimate AI investment risks or markets overestimate future AI cash flows …