A reflection on AI advances in the past decade and how scaling and time-horizon trends might point to far greater capabilities in the decade ahead
Zhengdong Wang : X: @zavaindar , @sparshagarwall , @justinbullock14 , @theamberyang , @firstadopter , @curl_justin , @pracheeac , @samuelalbanie , @sebkrier , @basavasagar18 , @zhengdongwang , and @sriramk . Bluesky: @brendannyhan . Forums: r/singularity X: Zavain Dar / @zavaindar : “i went home in a daze, hoping I wouldn't get hit by a bus...” perfect encapsulation of seeing a future before it's in plain sight h/t @zhengdongwang [image] Sparsh Agarwal / @sparshagarwall : Highly recommend. Here's what you get in my fav 2025 reflection: - commentary on the state of AI & the state of AGI commentary - what are the stakes for compute/AI as we enter 2026 - great travel advice: “Get Flighty, the most exciting app on my phone... Don't read most museum Justin Bullock / @justinbullock14 : “One way to think about computation before computers is through the work of Herbert Simon, the only person to win both the Turing Award and the Nobel Prize in economics. He explained that firms, like computers, are information processing systems. Firms have hierarchy, limited Amber Yang / @theamberyang : my favorite writing every year is my friend @zhengdongwang 's annual letter that spans philosophy, tech frontiers, and economies at scale Tae Kim / @firstadopter : We're so back! “we're so wildly early.” - @zhengdongwang [image] Justin Curl / @curl_justin : Zhengdong's annual post is a banger. AI will be transformative, but its precise contours are hard to predict. Epistemic humility's especially important rn. “assume counterintuitive findings to be false, and second-order effects to be dwarfed by first-order ones” (quoting Zeynep) Prachee Avasthi / @pracheeac : This is so excellent on what it means to think through a future with AI. Flipping between feeling wildly early and unbelievably late to the game in [choose your domain] is so relatable as we keep experiencing these moments that fundamentally break every extrapolation/prediction. Samuel Albanie / @samuelalbanie : recommended reading from post-agi researcher, human almanac & my top pick for ai conversationalist of the year (human division), @zhengdongwang Séb Krier / @sebkrier : Anything @zhengdongwang writes is worth reading. An excellent retrospective of progress to date, the supremacy of compute, and why it's never too late. [image] Basavasagar Patil / @basavasagar18 : “The enormous shortage of ability to compute is distorting our work, creating problems where there are none, making others impossibly difficult, and generally causing effort to be misdirected. Shouldn't this view be more widespread, if it is as obvious as I claim?” -Moravec, 1976 Zhengdong / @zhengdongwang : In my annual letter this year, I really try to get at what it means to “feel the AGI.” Featuring compute, inevitability, second-order effects, travel tips, Andor, and Isaiah Berlin. https://zhengdongwang.com/... Sriram Krishnan / @sriramk : Really good wrap up of the year in AI. Bluesky: Brendan Nyhan / @brendannyhan : “This is what it feels like for the wave of compute to pass over you... You need to pick your own test... a problem you know well... one you're supposed to be an expert in. You need to predict the result... Then, you need to watch the AI confound those predictions” zhengdongwang.com/2025/12/30/ 2... … Forums: r/singularity : Zhengdong Wang (GDM) on what it means to “feel the AGI”
“i went home in a daze, hoping I wouldn't get hit by a bus...” perfect encapsulation of seeing a future before it's in plain sight h/t @zhengdongwang [image]
Highly recommend. Here's what you get in my fav 2025 reflection: - commentary on the state of AI & the state of AGI commentary - what are the stakes for compute/AI as we enter 2026 - great travel advice: “Get Flighty, the most exciting app on my phone... Don't read most museum
“One way to think about computation before computers is through the work of Herbert Simon, the only person to win both the Turing Award and the Nobel Prize in economics. He explained that firms, like computers, are information processing systems. Firms have hierarchy, limited
Zhengdong's annual post is a banger. AI will be transformative, but its precise contours are hard to predict. Epistemic humility's especially important rn. “assume counterintuitive findings to be false, and second-order effects to be dwarfed by first-order ones” (quoting Zeynep)
This is so excellent on what it means to think through a future with AI. Flipping between feeling wildly early and unbelievably late to the game in [choose your domain] is so relatable as we keep experiencing these moments that fundamentally break every extrapolation/prediction.
Anything @zhengdongwang writes is worth reading. An excellent retrospective of progress to date, the supremacy of compute, and why it's never too late. [image]
“The enormous shortage of ability to compute is distorting our work, creating problems where there are none, making others impossibly difficult, and generally causing effort to be misdirected. Shouldn't this view be more widespread, if it is as obvious as I claim?” -Moravec, 1976
In my annual letter this year, I really try to get at what it means to “feel the AGI.” Featuring compute, inevitability, second-order effects, travel tips, Andor, and Isaiah Berlin. https://zhengdongwang.com/...
“This is what it feels like for the wave of compute to pass over you... You need to pick your own test... a problem you know well... one you're supposed to be an expert in. You need to predict the result... Then, you need to watch the AI confound those predictions” zhengdongwang…