Sources: Peter Thiel and Larry Page may leave CA over a proposed ballot measure, opposed by Newsom, that levies a one-time 5% tax on those with $1B+ in assets
It's uncertain whether the proposal will reach the statewide ballot in November, but some billionaires like Peter Thiel and Larry Page may be unwilling to take the risk.
New York Times
Context & Ripple Effects
The proposal put California’s relationship with its wealthiest technology figures into a direct political contest: Governor Newsom opposed it, while the measure’s path to the ballot remained uncertain. Later coverage shows the response becoming organized, from Thiel’s $3 million contribution to defeat the proposal to a tech-elite strategy discussion and ballot countermeasures backed by Sergey Brin.
First-order effects
Peter Thiel and Larry Page face a location and tax-planning decision before the measure’s outcome is known, creating a credible threat of resident departures rather than an enacted tax change.
The proposal immediately raises the political stakes for its backers and opponents, including Newsom, by making a small group of high-profile residents central to the ballot fight.
Second-order effects
The prospect of departures gives opponents a tangible campaign argument and encourages wealthy tech leaders to finance or coordinate opposition, as later evidenced by Thiel’s anti-measure donation.
Organizers and allied politicians are pushed to defend the measure not only on revenue grounds but against claims that it could weaken California’s ability to retain prominent founders and investors.
Third-order effects
If wealth-tax proposals repeatedly trigger preemptive relocation and well-funded countercampaigns, state tax policy may become a more explicit competitive variable in where founders maintain residency and concentrate investment.
The broader contest could shift from a single initiative to recurring ballot-measure warfare, in which wealthy individuals and organized labor build durable political infrastructure around tax policy; the outcome remains contingent on voter support and legal design.
The trend: This is one data point in the growing politicization of founder residency, as concentrated tech wealth becomes both a tax target and a source of campaign power.
This CA “billionaire” tax is an unrealized gains tax. A unicorn startup founder becomes a paper billionaire around $5B val. At YC we avg 2 to 4 per year (!) This will kill startups and innovation in California since a founder is illiquid while instantly on the hook for $100M
California is on a path to self-destruction. Hollywood is already toast and now the most productive entrepreneurs will leave taking their tax revenues and job creation elsewhere. And then the Democrats highlight @CAgovernor Newsom as a great leader. Crazy.
They say this ALL THE TIME! We can't allow billionaires to fearmonger just so they can avoid paying their fair share of taxes. CA loses billions in tax revenue in each year to pay for tax breaks that benefit the wealthy. They can afford to pay more. https://www.nytimes.com/...
generally speaking “I'm gonna move if you raise my taxes” threats from rich people are pretty empty but a 5% one time tax on someone's entire net worth creates a strong incentive to move out and then move back in after it hits lol
Remember everyone saying SF is back and the only place to build AI this year? Prediction that this sentiment shifts in 2026 and people focus on other geographies again.
HOTEL CALIFORNIA? California now wants a retroactive billionaire tax, leave the state and they'll tax last year's wealth anyway. The exodus is real. The desperation is worse. With 220 billionaires left in the state, and many reportedly preparing to bolt, California Democrats [ima…
In 2026, Gavin Newsom goes from the guy fighting Donald Trump to draw more Democratic districts to the guy fighting the SEIU to defeat a billionaire's tax. How do you think that will effect his 2028 Democratic primary polling? https://x.com/...
Politics aside—there are major policy issues with state billionaire's tax, to say nothing of the constitutional issues. At the Finance Committee we spent years working through these questions before even dropping bill text. It's not a policy you can just slap together.
Research shows that threats from the wealthy to move over high taxes are usually empty. Would have been nice if this article cited some of it! Note also that the tax avoidance strategies discussed are not the same as leaving. (Though if Page or Thiel does leave, good riddance!)
Here is a scenario where a high flying AI startup might not want to start in California.. Let's say the founder anticipates to raise money in 2026 and that they will be a billionaire on paper from that round. (Let's say 1.1bn). Also since this person is probably an AI
“A spokesman for Mr. Newsom said he continued to oppose “state-level wealth taxes” because they encouraged those who would be affected to move to another state.” Newsom being a voice of reason here
this really does seem dangerous: the top 1% of taxpayers pay 40-50% of CA income taxes. lose them and there will be no choice but to dramatically raise taxes elsewhere or impose serious austerity (not a chance lol) people say they won't miss them, but.. https://www.nytimes.com/..…
NEWS: Larry Page and Peter Thiel are making moves to leave California by the end of the year to avoid a possible billionaires tax that could hit them where it hurts. With @RMac18 + @hknightsf. https://www.nytimes.com/...
Peter Thiel is leaving California if we pass a 1% tax on billionaires for 5 years to pay for healthcare for the working class facing steep Medicaid cuts. I echo what FDR said with sarcasm of economic royalists when they threatened to leave, “I will miss them very much.”
People are saying this is an empty threat because they've already not followed through with this in the past, but I think it's an empty threat because they keep threatening to destroy society if they're forced to pay any taxes, but they've already not been paying taxes and destro…
These billionaires are so serious about leaving California that they're speaking through [squints] all anonymous people. — www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/t... [images]
Even if it doesn't pass, getting Newsom on record as opposing taxes on billionaires is very useful. And California will be better off if the oligarchs actually move to Florida
I get tired of super wealthy people whining about paying taxes, especially when public investments helped them make fortunes. Nonetheless, it is true that tax avoidance is a state/local issue when trying to raise revenue. More should be done at the federal level. — www.nytime…
Californians should wish the mega-billionaires good riddance and send them off to the Florida swamps or wherever they want to drag their sorry tax-evading, Trump-appeasing asses. The point is that they don't want to pay their fair share, so time to say...bye-bye. www.nytimes.com…
“A Wealth Tax Floated In California Has Billionaires Thinking Of Leaving” — IMO, there should be a ‘wealth tax’ introduced in every state for the super wealthy... #California #WealthTax — www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/t...
Gov. Gavin Newsom goes to bat for Epstein's Silicon Valley network. — “For Mr. Page, whose net worth is $258b, the measure could result in a one-time tax of more than $12b. The tax bill for Mr. Thiel, whose net worth is around $27.5b, could be more than $1.2b.” — www.nytimes…
we've been over this — we just did this in Massachusetts — they're not gonna leave, they'll whine and bitch and moan and eventually this will raise more money than expected because nowhere they go is actually like the place they're leaving [embedded post]