2025-12-22
This result updates me towards 4 month doubling times being my median estimate for the next two years. That means by EOY 2026 the time horizon will be 40 hours, and by EOY 2027 it will be 320 hours.
@metr_evals
METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year
just careful, meticulous rigor. Nikola Jurkovic / @nikolaj2030 : This result updates me towards 4 month doubling times being my median estimate for the next two years. That means b...
2025-12-21
This result updates me towards 4 month doubling times being my median estimate for the next two years. That means by EOY 2026 the time horizon will be 40 hours, and by EOY 2027 it will be 320 hours.
@metr_evals
METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year
We estimate that, on our tasks, Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50%-time horizon of around 4 hrs 49 mins (95% confidence interval of 1 hr 49 mins to 20 hrs 25 mins). While we're still workin...