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VOICE ARCHIVE

David Rein

@idavidrein
6 posts
2025-12-22
While I have a lot of uncertainty about this result (look at the confidence intervals!!), I do think this is just a clear example of what being on an exponential trend means, in terms of what it *feels like*. You gotta price this sort of thing in
2025-12-22 View on X
@metr_evals

METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year

just careful, meticulous rigor. Nikola Jurkovic / @nikolaj2030 : This result updates me towards 4 month doubling times being my median estimate for the next two years. That means b...

View original
Happy to have this out, there was a bunch of work that went into validating this result that I was really impressed by—just careful, meticulous rigor.
2025-12-22 View on X
@metr_evals

METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year

just careful, meticulous rigor. Nikola Jurkovic / @nikolaj2030 : This result updates me towards 4 month doubling times being my median estimate for the next two years. That means b...

View original
2025-12-21
Happy to have this out, there was a bunch of work that went into validating this result that I was really impressed by—just careful, meticulous rigor.
2025-12-21 View on X
@metr_evals

METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year

We estimate that, on our tasks, Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50%-time horizon of around 4 hrs 49 mins (95% confidence interval of 1 hr 49 mins to 20 hrs 25 mins). While we're still workin...

View original
While I have a lot of uncertainty about this result (look at the confidence intervals!!), I do think this is just a clear example of what being on an exponential trend means, in terms of what it *feels like*. You gotta price this sort of thing in
2025-12-21 View on X
@metr_evals

METR: Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50% task completion time horizon of about 4 hours and 49 minutes, more than double that of Claude Opus 4 released earlier this year

We estimate that, on our tasks, Claude Opus 4.5 has a 50%-time horizon of around 4 hrs 49 mins (95% confidence interval of 1 hr 49 mins to 20 hrs 25 mins). While we're still workin...

View original
2024-05-27
@drfeifei ... there are so, so many things wrong with this article. “One of the essential characteristics of general intelligence is ‘sentience’” False! We're confident that animals without human reasoning capabilities are sentient, and it's perfectly coherent to consider intelligent
2024-05-27 View on X
TIME

LLMs aren't sentient; they lack the physiological states required for sensations like hunger and pain, and thus can't have subjective experiences of such states

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the term used to describe an artificial agent that is at least as intelligent as a human …

View original
2024-05-26
@drfeifei ... there are so, so many things wrong with this article. “One of the essential characteristics of general intelligence is ‘sentience’” False! We're confident that animals without human reasoning capabilities are sentient, and it's perfectly coherent to consider intelligent
2024-05-26 View on X
TIME

LLMs aren't sentient; they lack the physiological states required for sensations like hunger and pain, and thus can't have subjective experiences of such states

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the term used to describe an artificial agent that is at least as intelligent as a human … Bluesky: @motomatters.bsky.social and @zitron.bs...

View original