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VOICE ARCHIVE

Chris McGuire

@chrisrmcguire
31 posts
2026-03-04
Thanks to @AsiaLens for including my thoughts on the CFIUS cases on Tencent's investment in US gaming companies. The USG has designated Tencent as a “Chinese military company,” the idea that we can mitigate the national security risks associated with its investments is foolhardy. [image]
2026-03-04 View on X
Financial Times

Sources: the White House is debating whether to allow Tencent to maintain stakes in US and Finnish video game companies; Tencent holds a 28% stake in Epic Games

Chinese company's investments in ‘Fortnite’ creator Epic Games and other creators have faced long-running US security review

Thanks to @AsiaLens for including my thoughts on the CFIUS cases on Tencent's investment in US gaming companies. The USG has designated Tencent as a “Chinese military company,” the idea that we can mitigate the national security risks associated with its investments is foolhardy. [image]
2026-03-04 View on X
Bloomberg

Tencent-owned Finnish game company Supercell says it is cooperating with a CFIUS security probe of Tencent's data practices

Supercell Oy, the Finnish game company owned by Tencent Holdings Ltd., said it's cooperating with a US government security probe of its Chinese parent's data practices.

2026-03-03
Great reporting by @eliotcxchen on AI chip smuggling. It is surely not a coincidence that Chinese smugglers chose to buy AI chips from Lenovo—a China-HQ'd firm. @BISgov should review Lenovo's AI chip export license, and also block AI chip sales to all China-HQ'd firms in the US.
2026-03-03 View on X
The Wire China

A look at the US DOJ's December 2025 indictment that alleged a smuggling ring illegally exported or tried to export $160M+ in advanced Nvidia AI chips to China

When President Donald Trump announced last December that Washington would let Nvidia sell its advanced H200 chips to China …

2026-02-28
DoW's order is also contradictory. It says Anthropic can work with DoW for 6 months to allow a seamless transition. But every other company that works with DoW (eg AWS, MSFT, NVDA, any big bank) must stop working with Anthropic immediately. That wont allow a seamless transition.
2026-02-28 View on X
Anthropic

Anthropic says it'll challenge “any supply chain risk designation in court” and that the designation would only affect contractors' use of Claude on DOD work

Earlier today, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth shared on X that he is directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply chain risk.

DoW's order is also contradictory. It says Anthropic can work with DoW for 6 months to allow a seamless transition. But every other company that works with DoW (eg AWS, MSFT, NVDA, any big bank) must stop working with Anthropic immediately. That wont allow a seamless transition.
2026-02-28 View on X
@secwar

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directs the DOD to designate Anthropic as a supply chain risk, barring military contractors from doing business with the company

This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon. Our ...

There is no defense of the admin's AI policy. It is literally destroying American AI companies, while exporting AI chips to Chinese AI companies. Incoherent, catastrophic, and unprecedented. Xi's early 2020s crackdown on the Chinese tech industry wasn't even this self-defeating.
2026-02-28 View on X
@secwar

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directs the DOD to designate Anthropic as a supply chain risk, barring military contractors from doing business with the company

This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon. Our ...

One of two things must be true: either the language OpenAI agreed to contains subtle—but potentially important—differences from the language Anthropic rejected (e.g. “human responsibility for the use of force” could mean a lot of things, so the specific contract details/language
2026-02-28 View on X
@sama

Sam Altman says OpenAI reached an agreement with the DOD to deploy its models in DOD's classified network and asks DOD to extend those terms to all AI companies

Tonight, we reached an agreement with the Department of War to deploy our models in their classified network. In all of our interactions, the DoW displayed a deep respect for safet...

There is no defense of the admin's AI policy. It is literally destroying American AI companies, while exporting AI chips to Chinese AI companies. Incoherent, catastrophic, and unprecedented. Xi's early 2020s crackdown on the Chinese tech industry wasn't even this self-defeating.
2026-02-28 View on X
Anthropic

Anthropic says it'll challenge “any supply chain risk designation in court” and that the designation would only affect contractors' use of Claude on DOD work

Earlier today, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth shared on X that he is directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply chain risk.

2026-02-24
So according to a senior USG official, Deepseek: (1) illegally obtained banned Blackwell chips, (2) used those chips to train its upcoming model, and plans to delete the evidence (and likely lie about what chips it actually used), and (3) also trained its model using
2026-02-24 View on X
Wall Street Journal

Anthropic says DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Moonshot violated its ToS by prompting Claude a combined 16M+ times and using distillation to train their own products

The allegations mirror those of OpenAI, which told House lawmakers that DeepSeek used ‘distillation’ to improve models

So according to a senior USG official, Deepseek: (1) illegally obtained banned Blackwell chips, (2) used those chips to train its upcoming model, and plans to delete the evidence (and likely lie about what chips it actually used), and (3) also trained its model using
2026-02-24 View on X
Reuters

A Trump administration official says DeepSeek's new model, expected next week, was trained on Nvidia Blackwell chips, in a potential US export control violation

2026-02-13
This is a massive deal.  OpenAI says DeepSeek and other Chinese AI labs are building their models by illicitly “distilling” them from frontier U.S. models.  China is effectively stealing the weights of our best AI models, which are among the most valuable assets on earth.  This is IP theft on the order of billions of dollars, if not more.  Given this, the idea that we should help DeepSeek by selling US AI chips to China is obviously absurd.  But stopping those sales likely isn't enough.  We need to close all loopholes in export controls on AI, and comprehensively cut China off from making, buying, or renting AI chips - and potentially also from accessing US AI models to impede China's distillation attacks [...]
2026-02-13 View on X
Bloomberg

In a memo to US lawmakers, OpenAI accused DeepSeek of using distillation techniques to train the next generation of R1 and “free-ride” on leading US AI models

OpenAI has warned US lawmakers that its Chinese rival DeepSeek is using unfair and increasingly sophisticated methods …

2026-01-28
Beijing approved H200 sales to Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance. Not at all surprising given how badly China needs these chips. Hard to see how Commerce could approve these sales, given these companies have ties to Chinese security services and US shortages of AI compute and HBM.
2026-01-28 View on X
Reuters

Sources: China approved its first batch of Nvidia H200 imports, covering 400K+ chips for ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, during Jensen Huang's visit to China

China has approved its first batch of Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips for import, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters …

2026-01-23
We finally have details on the investors in the U.S. TikTok: ByteDance 19.9%, SilverLake 15%, Oracle 15%, MGX 15%, all other investors combined: 35.1% So after years of negotiating a divestment deal, the largest investor in the new U.S. TikTok is...ByteDance. Seems not ideal.
2026-01-23 View on X
New York Times

ByteDance strikes a deal with a group of non-Chinese investors to create a new TikTok US entity and avoid a federal ban, concluding a six-year legal saga

TikTok said on Thursday that its Chinese owner, ByteDance, had struck a deal with a group of non-Chinese investors to create a new U.S. TikTok …

2026-01-19
Wow
2026-01-19 View on X
Axios

David Sacks and top MAGA influencers are publicly opposing House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast's proposed AI OVERWATCH Act to regulate AI chip sales to China

2026-01-18
Wow
2026-01-18 View on X
Axios

David Sacks and top MAGA influencers are publicly opposing House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast's proposed AI OVERWATCH Act to regulate AI chip sales to China

But the accusations are flying fast.  — “The AI Overwatch Act (H.R. 6875) may sound like a good idea, but when you examine it closely …

2025-12-31
Great write-up in the @WSJ of @Meta's acquisition of @ManusAI. Meta confirmed to the WSJ that not only will Manus have no Chinese ownership interests, but Manus will also discontinue all services and operations in China. That's a great outcome for the US, and a bad one for China.
2025-12-31 View on X
Wall Street Journal

How Manus distanced itself from its Chinese roots to court US investors; a source says Meta's $2.5B deal includes a $500M retention pool for Manus' employees

The $2.5 billion deal could herald a new era for China-linked AI companies and U.S. investors  —  Workers at Butterfly Effect …

2025-12-30
This is a very interesting development, which potentially demonstrates the power and strategic impact of U.S. outbound investment restrictions into Chinese AI firms.  Here's a brief history of the saga of @ManusAI : [...]
2025-12-30 View on X
Bloomberg

Meta agrees to acquire Singapore-based startup Manus, which makes an AI agent for SMBs; Manus said earlier in December its annual revenue run rate was $125M+

Meta Platforms Inc. has agreed to buy Manus, a popular Singapore-based artificial intelligence agent with Chinese roots …

This is a very interesting development, which potentially demonstrates the power and strategic impact of U.S. outbound investment restrictions into Chinese AI firms.  Here's a brief history of the saga of @ManusAI : [...]
2025-12-30 View on X
Wall Street Journal

Sources: Meta is buying Manus for $2B+; Manus was raising at a $2B valuation when Meta approached it; Manus CEO Xiao Hong will report to Meta COO Javier Olivan

The deal for more than $2 billion is one of the first in which a major U.S. tech company has bought a startup with Chinese roots

2025-12-19
According to Huawei's own public roadmap, its next-generation chip in 2026 will actually be less powerful than its best chip today. Going backwards is unheard of. This suggests China is struggling to produce advanced AI chips at scale—and Huawei is hitting a ceiling.
2025-12-19 View on X
Council on Foreign Relations

US approving Nvidia H200 exports to China is based on the idea that Huawei is a viable competitor, but data shows the gap between Nvidia and Huawei is widening

Executive Summary  —  On December 8, the Trump administration announced plans to loosen U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence …

Generally agree this is likely propaganda. It's well known that China/Huawei has its own EUV program. But nothing in this article makes me think they're close. That said, we should tighten all loopholes in SME controls to make sure the chokepoint lasts as long as possible.
2025-12-19 View on X
Council on Foreign Relations

US approving Nvidia H200 exports to China is based on the idea that Huawei is a viable competitor, but data shows the gap between Nvidia and Huawei is widening

Executive Summary  —  On December 8, the Trump administration announced plans to loosen U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence …